Reuters - Impending Deal Today - Iran and the P-5 Nations

[Pat]

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My “participant comments” -

The two following Reuters news reports from this morning (Nov 8th) and last evening (Nov 7th) portend an agreement between Iran and the P-5 nations (aka, the Permanent 5 members of the UN Security Council), on the other, regarding Iran’s nuclear-weapons program.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry is flying to Geneva for today’s wrap-up session that follows a bi-lateral meeting between the U.S. and Iran.

Reuters reports that Israel is furious.

Accordingly, it can also be presumed that Turkey, Egypt and the Gulf State Six (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, The United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman) are also furious.

[Presumably, the deal will ratify the NY Times speculation that Iran already has nuclear weapons (please see my post on this bulletin board in the Reference Materials section), and the U.S. and the other P-5 nations don’t care so long as Iran does not embarrass them by making it obvious that this is true.]

It would appear that John Karls’ optimistic report on the secret Oct. 21-22 summit between Iran, Turkey, Egypt and the Gulf State Six, news of which leaked earlier this week, was nothing more than a for-show conference hastily arranged by John Kerry to put Turkey, Egypt and the Gulf State Six on notice that they would have to deal with the issue of Iranian nuclear weapons on their own.

It’s a shame that the prospect of a near-term nuclear war in the Middle East rendering radioactive 50% of the world’s oil supplies (and, therefore, 50% of the world’s agricultural fertilizers), is something the U.S. no longer cares about.

After all, it was only 11 months ago that the U.S. Department of Energy projected that even with gas fracking, the U.S. will not be energy independent until 2040.

It would be disheartening if future history books record that President Obama’s decision meant that 50% of the world’s 7 billion population became unsustainable and starved to death.

And that his decision was motivated by the desire to divert domestic attention from the troubles being experienced by Obamacare.


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Kerry says aims to close 'important gaps' in Iran nuclear talks
By Lesley Wroughton and Fredrik Dahl
GENEVA Fri Nov 8, 2013 10:21am EST

(Reuters) - U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said on Friday important gaps needed to be bridged in high-stakes talks with Iran on curbing its nuclear program and he would meet Tehran's foreign minister shortly to try to clinch an interim deal.

"I want to emphasize there is not an agreement at this point," Kerry said shortly after arriving in Geneva, tempering rising anticipation of a breakthrough that would reduce the risk of a Middle East war over Iran's nuclear aspirations.

"We hope to try to narrow these differences but I don't think anybody should mistake there are some important gaps that have to be closed," he told reporters.

Midway through the second round of negotiations since Iran elected a moderate president who opened doors to a peaceful solution to the nuclear dispute, Kerry joined fellow big power foreign ministers in Geneva to help cement a preliminary accord, with Israel warning they were making an epic mistake.

Diplomats said a breakthrough remained uncertain and would in any case mark only the first step in a long, complex process towards a permanent resolution of international concerns that Iran may be seeking the means to build nuclear bombs.

But they said the arrival of Kerry, British Foreign Secretary William Hague and French and German foreign ministers Laurent Fabius and Guido Westerwelle signaled that the five permanent U.N. Security Council members and Germany may be closer to an elusive pact with Iran than ever before.

Kerry was expected to hold a trilateral meeting with European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif.

A senior U.S. State Department official said Kerry was committed to doing "anything he can" to overcome the chasm with the Islamic Republic. The powers aim to cap Iran's nuclear work to prevent any advance towards a nuclear weapons capability.

The top U.S. diplomat arrived from Tel Aviv where he met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who regards Iran's atomic aspirations as a menace to the Jewish state.

Netanyahu warned Kerry and his European counterparts that Iran would be getting "the deal of the century" if they carried out proposals to grant Tehran limited, temporary relief from sanctions in exchange for a partial suspension of, and pledge not to expand, its enrichment of uranium for nuclear fuel.

"Israel utterly rejects it and what I am saying is shared by many in the region, whether or not they express that publicly," Netanyahu told reporters.

"Israel is not obliged by this agreement and Israel will do everything it needs to do to defend itself and the security of its people," he said before meeting Kerry in Jerusalem.

Israel is not the only Middle East country fretting about Iran's nuclear ambitions. Saudi Arabia, Iran's chief rival for regional influence, has made clear to Washington that it does not like the signs of a possible U.S.-Iran rapprochement.

Israel has repeatedly suggested that it might strike Iran if it did not shelve its entire nuclear program and warned against allowing it to maintain what Israel sees as a nascent atomic bomb capability. Iran says its nuclear activities are geared only to civilian needs and has refused to suspend them.

The fact that a deal may finally be feasible after a decade of rhetorical feuding rather than genuine negotiations between Iran and the West highlighted a striking shift in the tone of Tehran's foreign policy since the election in June of Hassan Rouhani, a pragmatic former nuclear negotiator, as president.

In Iran, Iranian clerics voiced important support for the Iranian negotiating team. The Friday prayer leader in the town of Meshgin, Gholamreza Baveqar, was quoted by Fars news agency as saying that "the nuclear negotiators are sons of this nation and the Supreme Leader (Ali Khamenei) supports them."

Earlier this week Khamenei accorded crucial backing to Rouhani's negotiating track with the West, warning hardliners not to accuse him of caving in to old enemy America.

ISRAELI FURY

The negotiations in Geneva involve Iran and the permanent members of the U.N. Security Council - the United States, Russia, China, France and Britain - plus Germany. While Iran has in the past suggested broadening the agenda to include issues like Afghanistan, Iraq or Syria, the six powers have insisted on sticking to Tehran's nuclear activity.

The Islamic Republic, which harbors some of the world's largest oil and gas reserves, wants the six powers to lift increasingly tough restrictions that have slashed its daily crude sales revenue by 60 percent in the last two years.

Iran and the powers are discussing a partial nuclear suspension deal covering around half a year. If a preliminary deal is nailed down, it would only be the first stage in a process involving many rounds of intricate negotiations in the next few months aimed at securing a permanent agreement.

One of the main ideas under consideration is the disbursement in installments of up to around $50 billion of Iranian funds frozen in foreign accounts for many years. Other ideas included temporarily relaxing restrictions on Iran's trade in petrochemicals and precious metals.

Both sides have limited room to maneuver, as hardliners in Tehran and in Washington could sharply criticize any agreement they believed went too far in offering concessions.

One Western diplomat told Reuters that Israel's fury at the proposed deal might actually make it easier for Rouhani to sell the interim deal to skeptics in Iran's powerful security and clerical elites who are wary of U.S. overtures to Tehran 33 years after Washington broke off diplomatic relations.

Ashton's spokesman Michael Mann told reporters that there was no deal yet and "very intense work is continuing."

France's Laurent Fabius, the first of the Western foreign ministers to arrive in Geneva, said the talks were difficult. "There is progress, but nothing is concluded yet," he said.

Tehran wants respite from a panoply of international sanctions choking its economy. The United States has said world powers will consider some sanctions relief, while leaving the complex web of U.S., EU and U.N. restrictions in place, if Iran takes verifiable steps to rein in its nuclear program.

Israel has argued against sanctions relief until Iran has dismantled its enrichment facilities. "The Iranians are walking around very satisfied in Geneva - as well they should be, because they got everything and paid nothing," Netanyahu said.

PHASED SANCTIONS RELIEF?

U.S. President Barack Obama said on Thursday that the world could slightly ease up on sanctions against Iran in the early stages of negotiating a comprehensive permanent deal.

"There is the possibility of a phased agreement in which the first phase would be us ... halting any advances on their nuclear program ... and putting in place a way where we can provide them some very modest relief, but keeping the sanctions architecture in place," he said in an interview with NBC News.

Kerry said earlier that Tehran would need to prove its atomic activities were peaceful, and that Washington would not make a "bad deal, that leaves any of our friends or ourselves exposed to a nuclear weapons program".

"We're asking them to step up and provide a complete freeze over where they are today," he said on Thursday.

In Geneva, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi was cautious on the chances of an accord. "Too soon to say," he told reporters on Thursday after the first day of talks. "I'm a bit optimistic. We are still working. We are in a very sensitive phase. We are engaged in real negotiations."

Lending urgency to the need for a breakthrough was a threat by the U.S. Congress to pursue tough new sanctions on Iran.

Obama has been urging Congress to hold off on more punitive steps to isolate Iran, demanded by Israel, to avoid undermining the fragile diplomatic opening with the Islamic Republic.

But many U.S. lawmakers, including several of Obama's fellow Democrats, believe tough sanctions brought Iran to the negotiating table in the first place and that more are needed to discourage it from diverting enrichment toward bombmaking.

Zarif, Tehran's chief negotiator, suggested a partial suspension of Iran's enrichment campaign might be possible - a concession Iran ruled out before Rouhani's landslide election.

Zarif said he hoped the two sides would agree on a joint statement on Friday stipulating goals to be reached "within a limited period of time, hopefully in less than a year", and a series of reciprocal actions they would take "to build confidence and address their most immediate concerns".

Iran and the United States have had no diplomatic ties since soon after the 1979 Islamic Revolution that overthrew the U.S.-backed monarchy, and their mutual mistrust and enmity have posed the biggest obstacle to any historic nuclear settlement.

(Additional reporting by Louis Charbonneau and Yeganeh Torbati in Geneva, Timothy Gardner in Washington, Marcus George in Dubai, Michelle Nichols in New York and Crispian Balmer in Jerusalem; writing by Louis Charbonneau; Editing by Mark Heinrich)



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Iran, powers aim to seal deal on ending nuclear standoff
By Louis Charbonneau and Fredrik Dahl
GENEVA Thu Nov 7, 2013 6:58pm EST

(Reuters) - Iran and six world powers were closing in on a long-elusive deal on Friday aimed at allaying international fears about Tehran's atomic aims and reducing the risk of a new war in the volatile Middle East.

After the first day of a November 7-8 meeting, they said progress had been made towards an agreement under which the Islamic state would curb some of its nuclear activities in exchange for limited relief from sanctions that are damaging its economy.

Negotiators cautioned, however, that work remained to be done in the coming hours in very complex negotiations and that a successful outcome was not guaranteed. Iran rejects Western accusations that it is seeking the capability to make nuclear weapons.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said it was too early to say with certainty whether a deal would be possible this week, though he voiced cautious optimism.

"Too soon to say," Araqchi told reporters after the first day of talks between Iran and the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany. "I'm a bit optimistic."

"We are still working. We are in a very sensitive phase. We are engaged in real negotiations."

The fact that an agreement may finally be within reach after a decade of frustrated efforts and mutual hostility between Iran and the West was a sign of a dramatic shift in Tehran's foreign policy since the election of a relative moderate, Hassan Rouhani, as Iranian president in June.

The United States and its allies are aiming for a "first step" deal that would stop Iran from further expanding a nuclear program that it has steadily built up in defiance of tightening international pressure.

The Islamic Republic, which holds some of the world's largest oil and gas reserves, wants them to lift increasingly tough punitive measures that have slashed its daily crude sales revenue by 60 percent in the last two years.

Both sides have limited room to maneuver, as hardliners in Tehran and hawks in Washington would likely sharply criticize any agreement they believed went too far in offering concessions to the other side.

U.S. SENATE MAY SEEK MORE SANCTIONS

Lending urgency to the need for a breakthrough soon, a U.S. Senate committee said it would pursue a package of tough new sanctions on Iran after the current Geneva talks end on Friday.

President Barack Obama has been pushing Congress to hold off on more sanctions against Iran, demanded by its arch-enemy Israel, to avoid undermining the diplomacy aimed at defusing fears of an Iranian advance towards nuclear arms capability.

A spokesman for the European Union foreign policy chief - who is presiding over the talks - said on Thursday evening that the powers and Iran were "making progress" towards easing the decade-long standoff.

Michael Mann said EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton would meet Iran's foreign minister and chief negotiator, Mohammad Javad Zarif, on Friday morning "to allow more time to work through some issues". Diplomats from the six nations would also meet early on Friday to prepare Ashton's talks with Zarif.

Zarif told Reuters earlier in the day: "I'm hopeful that we can move forward. We are making progress, but it's tough."

In an interview with CNN later, Zarif suggested that a partial suspension of Iran's contested uranium enrichment campaign might be possible - a concession it ruled out before moderate Rouhani's landslide election.

"There won't be a suspension of our enrichment program in its entirety," Zarif said, rejecting Israel's central demand.

But he said he hoped the sides would agree a joint statement on Friday stipulating a goal to be reached "within a limited period of time, hopefully in less than a year", and a series of reciprocal actions they would take "to build confidence and address their most immediate concerns.

Iran says it is enriching uranium only to fuel future nuclear power stations and for medical purposes. But its refusal to halt activity which can also have military applications has drawn the increasingly tough sanctions.

The United States said it also held "substantive and serious" bilateral talks with Iran in Geneva - direct dialogue inconceivable before Rouhani took office pledging to build bridges abroad and end a slide towards conflict with the West.

Iran and the United States have had no diplomatic ties since soon after the 1979 Islamic Revolution that overthrew the U.S.-backed monarchy, and their mutual mistrust and enmity has posed the biggest obstacle to any breakthrough nuclear accord.

White House spokesman Jay Carney said that in exchange for "concrete, verifiable measures" of restraint by Iran, the six powers "would consider limited, targeted, and reversible relief that does not affect our core sanctions architecture".

The broader sanctions regime would stay pending a "final, comprehensive, verifiable" accord, Carney told reporters In Washington. If Iran did not follow through towards this end, modest sanctions relief could be reversed and stiffer penalties imposed.

ISRAEL SEES 'HISTORIC' MISTAKE

The U.S. Senate Banking Committee chairman declared the panel was moving forward on a proposal for new sanctions, a step likely to please Israel which has campaigned against compromise proposals under discussion in Geneva, describing them as potentially "a mistake of historic proportions".

Senator Tim Johnson, a Democrat, said Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid instructed him to bring the bill closer to a vote by the full Senate by calling for a debate on it.

Araqchi, the Iranian deputy foreign minister, said after the morning meetings that he hoped a deal could be struck but "the differences are widespread and deep. This is undeniable".

The Iranian delegation held a series of meetings - one with all three European delegations, then, separately, with the Russians, the Chinese and the Americans.

Araqchi met for an hour with U.S. delegation chief Wendy Sherman, under secretary of state for political affairs, in a meeting that a senior State Department official described as a "substantive and serious conversation".

The United States and its allies say they are encouraged by Tehran's shift to softer rhetoric since the election of Rouhani. But Western allies say Iran must back its words with action and take concrete steps to scale back its atomic work.

Washington says that would buy time for Iran and the powers to reach a broader diplomatic settlement and avert any war that could cause global economic upheaval.

"It remains our assessment that Iran would need at least one year to acquire one nuclear weapon from the time that Iran decides to pursue one," Carney said, describing the U.S. view of a potential "breakout move" by Tehran toward building an atomic bomb. "In other words, we would be essentially buying time."

The exact nature of a possible first step remain unclear. But the six global powers are unlikely to agree on anything less than a suspension of enrichment of uranium to 20 percent fissile purity, a level that constitutes a technical milestone not far from the threshold for a nuclear warhead.

They want Iran to convert its stockpile of 20 percent uranium to an oxide form suitable for processing into reactor fuel, and take other measures to slow the program.

A U.S. official said Iran at this stage must address important aspects of its nuclear activity, including more intrusive U.N. inspections. Iran's construction of a research reactor near the town of Arak is also a growing concern for the West because of its potential to yield plutonium for bombs.

A senior aide to a U.S. senator briefed by the White House and State Department said Washington would offer to work with Iran in a six-month confidence-building period. During that time Washington would offer Tehran, among other things, relaxed restrictions on Iranian funds held in overseas accounts.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he disliked the outlines of an initial deal being hinted at in Geneva since it would allow Iran to keep a nuclear capability.

"Israel totally opposes these proposals," he said in a speech. "I believe that adopting them would be a mistake of historic proportions. They must be rejected outright."

Widely assumed to be the Middle East's only nuclear power, Israel views Iran as a threat to its existence and has warned it could carry out pre-emptive strikes on Iranian nuclear sites if diplomacy fails to restrain the program.

(Additional reporting by Justyna Pawlak and Yeganeh Torbati in Geneva, Timothy Gardner in Washington,; Marcus George in Dubai, Michelle Nichols in New York; Editing by Mohammad Zargham)