Suggested Answers to the Second Short Quiz

[johnkarls]

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[Editorial Note = once each quarter there is a 5-week gap between meetings; when this occurs we have a Second Short Quiz.]

Question 1

Has the New York Times speculated, based on Obama Administration sources, that Iran already has nuclear weapons?

Answer 1

Yes.

Following North Korea’s most-recent nuclear test on 2/10/2013 attended by an extraordinary number of Iranian nuclear scientists, David Sanger (NY Times Washington Bureau Chief) and Choe Sang-Han (Pulitzer-Prize-winning South Korean journalist for the NY Times) reported that the Obama Administration had recognized beforehand that it was “very possible” that Iran was benefiting from the North Korean testing. [Their article is posted on http://www.ReadingLiberally-SaltLake.org.]

The 2/10/2013 tests were successful.

Question 2

If Iran already has nuclear weapons, aren’t they already deliverable by suitcase, if not soon by missile?

Answer 2

Of course.

Question 3

According to our author who quotes extensively from public speeches by Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is the Ayatollah fond of preaching that anyone as stupid as Colonel Qaddafi of Libya who gave up his nuclear-weapons program in fright over the second American invasion of Iraq in 2003, deserves to be overthrown by America like Colonel Qaddafi was?

Answer 3

Yes.

Question 4

Does our author provide any reason to believe (or not believe) that Ayatollah Khamenei intends to dominate the entire Middle East starting with the Persian Gulf which produces approximately one third of the world’s oil (think fertilizer, not just fuel), if America creates a vacuum by withdrawing either physically or in terms of seriousness of purpose?

Answer 4

Curiously, no. Indeed, our author ignores the issue.

Question 5

After all, doesn’t Ayatollah Khamenei talk frequently if not weekly about, in addition to destroying Israel with a nuclear weapon (calling Israel a “one bomb state”), dominating all Middle Eastern countries -- even though our author doesn’t quote any of those speeches?

Answer 5

Yes.

Question 6

And, after all, isn’t Ayatollah Khamenei already engaged in a “proxy war” with the Gulf State Six (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, The United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman) in Syria -- even though our author doesn’t quote any of the Ayatollah’s speeches dealing with Syria?

Answer 6

Yes

As we have discussed in the past, the Gulf State Six believe they are in a Death Struggle with Iran, as a result of which they have supported the Syrian rebellion with money, arms and fighters in order to overthrow Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

This is an application of Classic Military Tactics 101 = before facing your enemy, secure your rear.

Question 7

And according to news reports, hasn’t Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime been recently rescued and kept in power by fighters from Iran’s Hezbollah from Lebanon?

Answer 7

Yes.

Question 8

What was the effect on Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his predecessor Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini of the invasion by Iraq’s Saddam Hussein on 9/22/1980, which lasted for eight years until August 1988?

Answer 8

Iran suffered an estimated 1 million killed and wounded. And civilian deaths continue to this day as the result of the Iraqi chemical weapons that were used. [Saddam also used chemical weapons after the war against both Iraqi Kurds and Iraqi Shiites.]

Indeed, at the beginning of the war, Iran was so ill-prepared that, like China when it intervened in the Korean War 1950-1953, Human Wave Attacks were employed = using such large masses of unarmed human beings that the opposing machine guns are not able to mow all of them down before the machine-gun positions are overrun.

Should anyone be surprised to learn that Iran’s then Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, and his successor to this day, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, believed that the U.S. was behind the Iraqi attack and that U.S. policy to this day has remained regime change??? [Please read on Q&A-9 - Q&A-11.]

Question 9

Was Saddam Hussein invented and installed in Iraq by the first George Bush when he was the Director of the CIA?

Answer 9

Although the first President Bush served as Director of the C.I.A. for only 357 days (1/30/1976 – 1/20/1977) and Saddam did not formally become President of Iraq until two years later on 7/16/1979, Saddam’s predecessor had been ill for an extended period and Saddam had been widely recognized as the de facto dictator of Iraq both since and because of the first George Bush’s tenure at C.I.A.

A brief digression.

Another widely-reputed invention of the first George Bush as Director of the C.I.A. was Manuel Noriega who was President of Panama 8/12/1983 - 12/15/1989. [Noriega was widely reported to be on the C.I.A. payroll from the late 1950’s until he became President.]

It is interesting to compare (1) the reaction of the first President Bush to his feeling of betrayal by his creation, Saddam Hussein, when Saddam invaded Kuwait on 8/2/1990, less than two years after the end of Saddam’s 8-year war with Iran (after all, it’s one thing for your creation to wage war against Iran but quite another for your creation to invade Kuwait), and (2) the reaction of the first President Bush to his feeling of betrayal by his creation, Manuel Noriega, when as President of Panama, Noriega became the Chief Drug Lord funneling illegal drugs into the U.S.

Everyone remembers the first President Bush waging Gulf War I to evict Saddam from Kuwait.

But few remember that the first President Bush launched Operation Nifty Package on 12/20/1989 which was a 15-day invasion of Panama by U.S. marines who successfully executed their objective of “arresting in" ("kidnapping from" per normal English usage) his own capital a sitting foreign Head of Government. [Noriega was whisked by the Marines to Florida where he was prosecuted and jailed by the U.S. until April 2010 and he has since been serving a 20-year prison sentence in Panama.]

Question 10

Did Saddam start his 8-year war with Iran shortly after the Shah of Iran was deposed on 1/16/1979?

Answer 10

Yes -- on 9/22/1980, a mere 20 months after the Shah was deposed.

Question 11

Did Saddam start his 8-year war while President Carter was still in office and while Iranian students still held for 444 days the American Embassy in Tehran including 52 American hostages?

Answer 11

Yes.

It is interesting to note that as Director of the C.I.A., the first President Bush briefed both Democratic Candidate Jimmy Carter and President-Elect Jimmy Carter, and Carter and Bush had extended discussions after Carter took office concerning Bush remaining on as C.I.A. Director.

So although nothing definitive appears to be written about whether Saddam’s invasion of Iran was inspired by the C.I.A. (and, perhaps even, by its recent Director and Carter adviser, George H.W. Bush), can the Iranian Supreme Leader (both then and now) be blamed for being suspicious???

Question 12

Does our author report that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei often says that the reason why the Iranian students were permitted by his predecessor Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to continue to hold the Embassy and the 52 Americans for 444 days was that neither of them had any fear of America?

Answer 12

Yes.

Question 13

But don’t the facts contradict Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s frequent claim because they immediately surrendered the Embassy and American hostages on 1/20/1981 because that was the day Ronald Reagan was sworn in as U.S. President and they didn’t want to give him any excuse to overthrow their regime?

Answer 13

Of course.

And it interesting to note that when Ayatollah Ali Khamenei permitted Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to be elected Iranian President in 2005, it was universally reported by the American media that he was the leader of the students who had captured the American Embassy in Tehran on 11/4/1979.

The second President Bush wisely decided to ignore this insult from Ayatollah Khamenei.

Question 14

Does Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, according to our author, firmly believe to this day that America’s policy toward Iran is regime change?

Answer 14

Yes.

Question 15

Why does Ayatollah Khamenei, according to his speeches quoted by our author, believe that America accomplished its goal of regime change with respect to the Soviet Union but that unlike the Soviet Union’s communism, Iran’s Islam cannot be overthrown by America?

Answer 15

He believes that communism (“from each according to his ability and to each according to his need” as distinguished from socialism which is merely state ownership of the means of production) is contrary to human nature.

But Islam (which literally means obedience or submission -- to Allah) which preaches a fearsome Judgment Day on which everyone will be prosecuted by Avenging Angels in a determination of eternal punishment or reward, is not something that can easily be ignored by Iranians, even if they were to be conquered militarily by the U.S.

Question 16

Does our author recommend that America negotiate an accommodation with Iran?

Answer 16

Yes.

Question 17

Does the accommodation recommended by our author appear to outline an abandonment by the U.S. of the Gulf State Six (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, The United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman), if not the remainder of the Middle East including Egypt and Turkey?

Answer 17

Yes.

Question 18

How soon, with natural gas fracking, is the U.S. expected to become energy independent?

Answer 18

On 12/5/2012, the U.S. Department of Energy predicted that the U.S. will be energy independent by 2040. [On 12/5/2013, DOE made an “early release” of an abridged version of its Annual Energy Outlook scheduled for normal release between next April 15 and May 2.]

Question 19

Is crude oil fungible?

Answer 19

Yes.

Question 20

Accordingly, even though American “talking heads” are fond of focusing on how little crude oil America imports from the Middle East as opposed to other sources, wouldn’t America have to compete until it is completely energy independent for its non-Middle Eastern oil sources if Middle East oil became unavailable?

Answer 20

Yes.

Question 21

Even following American energy independence in 2040, would America be wise to become isolationist and let the rest of the world worry about, and perhaps even engage in wars over, the oil supplies (think fertilizers, virtually all of which are made from petrochemicals) of the rest of the world?

Answer 21

Let’s discuss this at our meeting on November 13th.

Question 22

How would such isolationism be similar to, and dissimilar from, the American isolationism that led to World War II?

Answer 22

Let’s discuss this at our meeting on November 13th.

Question 23

Since the Gulf State Six (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, The United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman), if not Egypt and Turkey, have already long-since announced that they will go nuclear as soon as Iran goes nuclear, has our author demonstrated that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is rational enough despite his rants on domination of the entire Middle East and his rants on destroying Israel, that a stable nuclear balance can be reached in perpetuity and that there can be avoided the starving of half the world’s population if the 50% of the world’s oil supplies that originate in the Persian Gulf or downwind from the Persian Gulf suddenly become radioactive?

Answer 23

Let’s discuss this at our meeting on November 13th.

Question 24

What are the terms, if any, on which the U.S. should be willing to reach a deal with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei?

Answer 24

Let’s discuss this at our meeting on November 13th.

Question 25

What action, if any, should the U.S. be willing to take in the absence of a deal with Ayatollah Khamenei?

Answer 25

Let’s discuss this at our meeting on November 13th.