Discussion Outline

[johnkarls]

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DISCUSSION OUTLINE – WILL AYATOLLAH ALI KHOMENEI DESTROY THE WORLD???


FOCUS = Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and a 15-page article about him in Foreign Affairs Magazine. [The article is posted below in the Reference Materials section of this bulletin board for 11/13/2013.]

BACKGROUND

When last we focused on American foreign policy, we agreed that preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons is in the national interest because (1) Turkey, Egypt, and each of the Gulf State Six (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, The United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman) have each announced that each will immediately go nuclear if Iran does, (2) Iran's Supreme Leader is fond of proclaiming that he wants to rule the Middle East and, for good measure, that Israel should be destroyed and Israel is only "a one bomb country" leading one to assume that he will start a nuclear holocaust in no time flat, and (3) 50% of the world's oil supplies come from the Persian Gulf OR DOWNWIND from the Persian Gulf which means that the lives of 3.5 billion of the earth's 7 billion human population would immediately no longer be sustainable (NB: virtually all of the world's fertilizers are made from petrochemicals).

The reason why the Cold War policy of Mutual Assured Destruction ("MAD") worked so well in producing a stable standoff with the Soviet Union is that all of the leaders of the Soviet Union had grown up on farms as a result of which they loved the Russian people and were not about to sacrifice them on the altar of some crazy notion.

But can the same be said of Ayatollah Khamenei???

Particularly when he says at least once a week that he wants to rule the Middle East and, for good measure, nuke Israel.


DISCUSSION QUESTIONS FROM OUR SHORT QUIZZES

The following questions in our Short Quizzes (contained in previous weekly e-mails and posted on http://www.ReadingLiberally-SaltLake.org) were answered, “What do you think??? Let’s discuss this at our meeting!!!” --

First Short Quiz Q-14

Even if Turkey, Egypt and the Gulf State Six were each willing to believe, unlike French President Charles de Gaulle, that America would engage in a nuclear war in order to save them, isn't Ayatollah Ali Khamenei so dangerous and unstable that he cannot be deterred for long from having his nuclear war?

First Short Quiz Q-15

In other words, like the leaders of the Soviet Union who grew up in farming families and loved the Russian people so much that they would never have risked a nuclear war, does Ayatollah Khamenei love the Iranian people enough to make workable nuclear détente (aka Mutual Assured Destruction) or is he crazy enough to be willing to sacrifice them on the altar of some ideology such as Domination of the Middle East (which he regularly advocates) or Annihilation of Israel (which he regularly advocates)?

Second Short Quiz Q-21

Even following American energy independence in 2040, would America be wise to become isolationist and let the rest of the world worry about, and perhaps even engage in wars over, the oil supplies (think fertilizers, virtually all of which are made from petrochemicals) of the rest of the world?

Second Short Quiz Q-22

How would such isolationism be similar to, and dissimilar from, the American isolationism that led to World War II?

Second Short Quiz Q-23

Since the Gulf State Six (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, The United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman), if not Egypt and Turkey, have already long-since announced that they will go nuclear as soon as Iran goes nuclear, has our author demonstrated that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is rational enough despite his rants on domination of the entire Middle East and his rants on destroying Israel, that a stable nuclear balance can be reached in perpetuity and that there can be avoided the starving of half the world’s population if the 50% of the world’s oil supplies that originate in the Persian Gulf or downwind from the Persian Gulf suddenly become radioactive?

Second Short Quiz Q-24

What are the terms, if any, on which the U.S. should be willing to reach a deal with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei?

Second Short Quiz Q-25

What action, if any, should the U.S. be willing to take in the absence of a deal with Ayatollah Khamenei?


ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATIONS

(A) The U.S. and other P-5 nations (aka, the Permanent 5 members of the UN Security Council) are meeting “as we speak” in Geneva with Iran for nuclear-arms talks that appear to be reaching an interim deal to relax somewhat some sanctions in return for a freeze on Iranian uranium enrichment.

(B) U.S. Senate Republicans have been pushing a bill over White House objections to INCREASE sanctions on Iran rather than relax them.

(B-1) This would match a bill passed by the U.S. House of Representatives last July.

(B-2) Senate Democrats have blocked consideration of the Republican bill until after the current round of negotiations with Iran.

(B-3) However, there are 45 Republican Senators so, even though they cannot pass the bill without support from at least 6 Democratic Senators (though such support should be forthcoming since support for Israel is usually a bi-partisan matter), they could block ratification of any treaty resulting from the current negotiations in Geneva -- since ratification would require a 2/3 vote.

(B-4) Accordingly, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry will probably not cast any agreement resulting from the current negotiations as a treaty requiring U.S. Senate ratification.

(B-5) Ratification (or lack thereof) is unlikely to make any difference because so many countries would rush to do business with Iran as soon as an interim deal is reached this weekend, that whether or not the U.S. Senate is asked to ratify the deal and whether the U.S. Senate, then, in fact does so, would be irrelevant as a practical matter.

(C) BUT WHETHER OR NOT AN INTERIM DEAL IS REACHED THIS WEEKEND, OUR BASIC ANALYSIS OF WHETHER IRAN’S SUPREME LEADER CAN BE TRUSTED FOR NUCLEAR DÉTENTE IS STILL RELEVANT.