Discussing Liberally Salt Lake City

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Question 1

Why are Pakistan and its Feb. 18th Parliamentary Election so important to the United States???

Suggested Answer 1

Pakistan is the only Islamic country to possess nuclear weapons, which the U.S. would not want to see fall into the hands of terrorists.

Pakistan is the source of the nuclear technology for Iran (which is currently in defiance of numerous United Nations resolutions regarding its nuclear-weapons program) and North Korea (which is also currently in defiance of numerous United Nations resolutions regarding its nuclear-weapons program – and which last year successfully tested its first nuclear weapon).

In addition, Pakistan was the source of the nuclear technology for Libya whose President Qadaffi surprised the world by announcing in response to the US invasion of Iraq that he had a nuclear-weapons program whose technology had come from Pakistan. Simultaneously, he announced that he/Libya would like to renounce the program and it was dismantled under the auspices of the United Nations.

In addition, Pakistan is home to Al Qaida and The Taliban.

In this regard, Al Qaida has been working feverishly to implement Osama bin Laden’s fatwa to nuke 10 million Americans.

Our October meeting focused on (1) the approach of Sen. Fgn. Rel. Ch. and recent Presidential Candidate Joe Biden to meet this threat, (2) the approach of his two immediate predecessors (Richard Lugar, R-IN, and Sam Nunn, D-GA) in which they were joined by the Chair and Co-Chairs of the 9/11 Commission (Thomas Kean and Lee Hamilton), and (3) the initial warning and proposed approach by the founding Dean of the Harvard U. Kennedy School of Government, Graham Allison.

Several of the gentlemen cited in the immediately-preceding paragraph have said in interviews that it is only a matter of time until American cities are destroyed by terrorist nuclear blasts. Indeed, we learned at our October meeting that two other gentlemen (Pres. Clinton's Secretary of Defense now a Stanford U Prof, and Ass't Sec/Def for National Security now a Harvard U Prof) made an urgent proposal last year that Congress pass a law to make the U.S. military responsible for coping with the aftermath of terrorist nuclear blasts on American soil because traditional "first responders" do not have the necessary expertise with respect to nuclear radiation, etc.

Question 2

Will the 2008 general election for U.S. President be dominated by news headlines/stories from the Military Tribunal for Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and related issues such as whether "water boarding" KSM saved American lives and whether the post-9/11 wire-tapping of terrorists such as KSM without FISA approval should be renewed and whether, if released, KSM would attempt to carry out Osama bin Laden’s fatwa to nuke 10 million Americans???

Suggested Answer 2

Probably.

After all, we knew we weren’t going to be running against George Bush and should have anticipated in all our Congressional “grand standing” on “water boarding” despite the decision of the World Court in litigation between the I.R.A. and the U.K. that “water boarding” is NOT torture, that a major issue in the general election would be “coddling” the likes of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed.

In this regard, the “ticking time bomb” question (whether, as President, one would “water board” a terrorist in order to save American lives) was answered affirmatively by Bill Clinton and other prominent Democrats who served in positions of responsibility in the Clinton Administration.

Last fall, Tim Russert quoted WITHOUT ATTRIBUTION one of Bill Clinton’s affirmative answers while interviewing Hillary Clinton. She answered negatively. When Russert identified the source of the quote, it took Hillary a moment to regain her composure – but then she smiled and said: “I’ll talk to him later.”

Barack Obama is on record as opposing “water boarding” under any circumstances.

Question 3

What was the “center of civilization” in the world for nearly a millennium until the 13th century???

Suggested Answer 3

The Arab Empire which, inter alia, invented algebra and geometry and was on the “cutting edge” of astronomy. Their medical texts were the standard medical texts until 1800 in Europe, which was a very backward place during this period (if you couldn’t “hack it” in the Arab world, you could still find employment despite being a “flunky” as the “court sage” anywhere in Europe).

Indeed, approximately 700 years before Columbus, Arab pilgrims to Mecca had noticed that the sum of the three angles formed by the triangle of any three cities on the earth’s surface exceeded slightly 180 degrees, rather than equaling 180 precisely. So they hypothesized that the earth was NOT flat and estimated the dimensions of the earth on the assumption that it was a sphere. They correctly estimated the earth’s circumference at 25,000 miles and its diameter at 8,000 miles.

Question 4

What is Benazir Bhutto’s educational background???

Suggested Answer 4

Benazir Bhutto received her B.A. in Comparative Government from Harvard, where she was Phi Beta Kappa. She then studied Politics, Philosophy and Economics (“PP&E”) at Oxford – the typical educational background of most British Prime Ministers (except Churchill who attended Sandhurst - Britain's West Point). While there, she was elected President of the Oxford Union – the first Asian woman to head Oxford’s most prestigious debating society.

Question 5

How many military coups have there been in Pakistan in the last 30 years??? What is always the pretext given by the Pakistani military for each of their coups???

Suggested Answer 5

Four.

Ali Bhutto, Benazir’s father, was executed by the military in 1979 after being deposed. Benazir was deposed twice after serving as Prime Minister 1988-90 and 1993-96. In addition, Nawaz Sharif who leads another political party, was deposed in 1999.

The pretext always given by the military for its coups was corruption.

Question 6

Is there a Pakistani who adopted the same title as the Leader of the Afghan Taliban???

Suggested Answer 6

Yes. When he was Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif was closely allied with Islamic fundamentalists and called himself “Amir al Mumineen” meaning “Leader of the Faithful” which was the same title used at that time by Mullah Omar, the head of The Taliban which was formed under the aegis of the Pakistani government.

In this regard, Mr. Sharif has insisted of late that he is “a changed man” – having learned from his years of imprisonment and exile by the Pakistani military.

Question 7

How many members of Benazir Bhutto’s family of origin were assassinated???

Suggested Answer 7

Four. The execution of her father, Prime Minister Ali Bhutto, should be counted as a legal assassination even though it followed a “show trial.” One of her two brothers was assassinated. The other brother died in violent circumstances and his death was widely suspected as being politically motivated. And now, last December 27th, Benazir was assassinated.

Only her mother and her sister have escaped (so far) assassination.

Question 8

What happened upon Benazir Bhutto’s return to Pakistan on 18 October 2007 to run for Prime Minister after her long exile in Dubai???

Suggested Answer 8

When Benazir’s plane touched down in Pakistan after her long exile in Dubai, more than 3 million of her supporters crowded the airport and her expected route to the grave of Muhammed Ali Jinnah, the founding father of Pakistan.

Along the route, street lights mysteriously went out continuously as her motorcade approached. This was particularly grim because the Musharraf regime had denied all safety provisions requested by Benazir, including equipment that could block cell phones (they are typically used to trigger roadside bombs around the world).

Her convoy was then attacked, resulting in the deaths of 179 among her entourage who defended her vigorously. Benazir escaped only because of how heavily armored was the massive truck in which she was traveling.

Benazir and her armored truck escaped to her heavily-fortified family home.

Benazir and her surviving entourage blamed Islamic fundamentalists, with collusion from officials in the Musharraf regime.

The expected worldwide headlines of “3 Million Supporters Greet Benazir Bhutto on Her Triumphal Return to Pakistan” were replaced with “Benazir Bhutto Escapes Assassination Attempt”!!!

Question 9

Did Benazir Bhutto intend to become a martyr on 27 December 2007???

Suggested Answer 9

The first 1/3 of Benazir’s book “Reconciliation: Islam, Democracy and the West” is a wonderful analysis of Islam (including all of its various sects), including detailed references to The Koran to support her contentions that, among other things, Islam REQUIRES democracy and Islam REQUIRES the equal treatment of women.

In the course of her analysis, she argues that Islam prohibits suicide and intentional martyrdom.

Though, of course, we know that Islamic martyrs and suicide bombers believe the opposite from the focus of our May meeting of two years ago on “The End of Faith: Religion, Terror and the Future of Reason” (WW Norton 2004), NY Times Best Seller and winner of the 2005 PEN award for non-fiction, with a forward by Harvard Law Prof. Alan Dershowitz who himself is the author of “America on Trial.”

“The End of Faith” describes how Islam has the same Judeo-Christian concept of The Judgment Day. But that every good Muslim has a mortal fear of The Judgment Day which, per Islamic belief, will occur only after centuries of mouldering in the earth and consists of being "interrogated by wrathful angels" with only a slim hope of proceeding to "Allah's Garden." And that every good Muslim believes that the only way to by-pass The Judgment Day and proceed immediately after death (vs. mouldering in the earth for centuries) to "Allah's Garden" is to become a martyr. And, further, that every martyr is able to select 72 friends/relatives to by-pass The Judgment Day with her/him -- which is why Western media photos of relatives of Arab martyrs often show them rejoicing!!!

Nevertheless, since Benazir Bhutto argues so eloquently against this interpretation of The Koran, she presumably did NOT intend to become a martyr.

However, she was well aware of the danger of assassination, particularly from the unsuccessful assassination attempt only 2 months earlier on the day she returned to Pakistan from exile.

Accordingly, it is clear that she was a very brave woman who did not intend to be assassinated, but was resigned to being assassinated.

Question 10

Which U.S. Senators traveled to Pakistan for the Feb. 18th Parliamentary Election to underscore a concern that the election be free and fair???

Suggested Answer 10

Senate Foreign Relations Chair and recent Democratic Presidential Candidate, Joe Biden.

2004 Democratic Presidential Nominee, John Kerry.

Republican Senate Foreign Relations member, Chuck Hagel, who is retiring at the end of the year at the end of his second term.

Question 11

What were the results of the election???

Suggested Answer 11

Benazir’s party received 33% of the vote and the party of Nawaz Sharif, the other Prime Minister recently deposed by the military, received 25%.

The two parties immediately agreed to a governing “Grand Coalition.”

Both Benazir and Nawaz had pledged to remove Musharraf as President. Musharraf had been forced after his election by the old Parliament last fall as President, to surrender his position as head of the Pakistani armed forces, so he would be vulnerable to removal.

Under the Pakistani Constitution, only a 67% vote in Parliament would be required to remove Musharraf. Since his party only received 15% of the vote in the Feb. 18 Parliamentary election, it would be a simple matter for the parties of Benazir and Nawaz to recruit one or more minor parties with 9% of the popular vote to add to their combined 58% to remove Musharraf.

The U.S. State Department is putting extreme pressure on both Benazir’s party and Nawaz’ party not to remove Musharraf.

Question 12

If the Pakistani military were to stage another coup in the future, how would it be likely to differ from past coups, taking into account the educational background of the top echelon of the officer corps, past and present, and the educational background of military officers below the top echelon???

Suggested Answer 12

The top echelon of the Pakistani military, past and present, was educated in the West.

Virtually all of the Pakistani officer corps below the top echelon was educated in Pakistan. Which is one of the reasons why there is such tremendous sympathy in the Pakistani military and in the lower levels of the Musharraf regime for Al Qaida and The Taliban – probably accounting for the alleged collusion of the Musharraf regime with the failed October 18th assassination attempt on Benazir Bhutto.

Question 13

Benazir Bhutto’s new book “Reconciliation: Islam, Democracy and the West” provides an impressive array of arguments why The Koran requires democracy (and, incidentally, why it requires the equal treatment of women) – but does Islam have a central hierarchy (such as the Roman Catholic Church or the LDS Church) that can insure that all Muslims interpret The Koran correctly???

Suggested Answer 13

No.

And that is why an Islamic bomb is so much more dangerous than, say, a Hindu bomb or a Buddhist bomb (don’t laugh – Imperial Japan was Buddhist and “raped” China for nearly a decade before WW-II started in Europe (“rape” is the term commonly used by historians to describe what happened to China at the hands of Imperial Japan)).

Since there are so many Islamic sects, many of which preach that martyrs by-pass The Judgment Day (and can select 72 friends/relatives to by-pass The Judgment Day with them), there is a much greater danger of a small number of Islamic terrorists destroying American cities with nuclear weapons. Even if Osama bin Laden had not issued a fatwa to nuke 10 million Americans.

Question 14

Is Benazir Bhutto’s thesis correct that Islam and the West can be reconciled???

Suggest Answer 14

Hopefully.

But that is what the last 2/3 of her book addresses.

And that will be the heart of our discussion on March 13.

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Editorial Note -

Just because of George Bush's "I Gave At The Office" National Intelligence Estimate of last fall bowing out of the leadership role in the effort to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, doesn't mean the rest of the world has gone to sleep!!!

As pointed out by most experts at the time the NIE was issued, the longest "critical path" lead time for acquiring nuclear weapons regards uranium enrichment, and Iran has never wavered for an instant on its unnecessary uranium enrichment -- which is the target of yesterday's UN Security Council Resolution. (NB: Although the NIE claimed that Iran had halted its weapons-design efforts immediately following the US invasion of Iraq, most experts at the time the NIE was issued last fall opined that US intelligence would have little chance, if the effort were resumed on a clandestine basis if indeed it had not already so resumed, of detecting it.)


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Security Council Adds Sanctions Against Iran
New York Times - March 4, 2008
By WARREN HOGE and ELAINE SCIOLINO

UNITED NATIONS — The Security Council on Monday adopted its third resolution imposing sanctions on Iran for its refusal to cease enriching uranium, an activity that the West suspects Iran may be using to create fuel for a nuclear weapon.

The previous two measures gained the unanimous support of the 15-member panel, but in balloting on Monday Indonesia abstained, saying it “remained to be convinced of the efficacy of adopting additional sanctions at this juncture.” Fourteen countries voted in favor.

The resolution authorizes inspections of cargo to and from Iran that is suspected of carrying prohibited equipment, tightens the monitoring of Iranian financial institutions and extends travel bans and asset freezes against persons and companies involved in the nuclear program.

It adds 13 names to the existing list of 5 individuals and 12 companies subject to travel and asset restrictions. The new names include people with direct responsibility for building fast-spinning centrifuges that enrich uranium ore and a brigadier general engaged in “efforts to get around the sanctions” in the two earlier resolutions.

Enriched uranium is used to power nuclear reactors for civilian use. But highly enriched uranium can be used as fuel for a nuclear weapon. The new measure also bans all trade and supply of so-called dual-use items, materials and technologies that can be adapted for military as well as civilian ends.

Earlier on Monday in Vienna, Mohamed ElBaradei, the director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations nuclear monitor, said newly disclosed intelligence reports that Iran had secretly researched how to make nuclear weapons were of “serious concern” and would be pursued by his office.

“Iran continues to maintain that these alleged weaponization studies related to conventional weapons only are fabricated,” Dr. ElBaradei said in a speech to the agency’s 35-country policy-making body. “However a full-fledged examination of this issue has yet to take place.”

The studies were described last Monday, in a briefing by Olli Heinonen, the agency’s senior inspector.

They included sketches and a video that appeared to have come from Iran’s own military laboratories, and Mr. Heinonen said they showed work “not consistent with any application other than the development of a nuclear weapon.”

In a thinly veiled criticism of Iran, Dr. ElBaradei said, “I urge Iran to be as active and cooperative as possible in working with the agency to clarify this matter of serious concern.”

Iran says that the agency’s findings support its claim that its nuclear program is solely for peaceful purposes, and it has rejected all suggestions that it was studying how to make nuclear weapons.

Iran’s ambassador to the agency, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, called the intelligence data “forged and fabricated” and denounced the new Security Council resolution on Monday as “irresponsible” and “an arrow aiming at the heart of” the atomic energy agency.

Iran argues that its program is devoted solely to producing fuel for nuclear reactors that generate electricity. The United States and its European allies on the Council contend that the real purpose is to make Iran an atomic power, and they say they are determined to prevent that from happening.

The resolution approved Monday was originally scheduled for a decision on Friday, but its two sponsors, Britain and France, delayed consideration in the hope of getting as close to unanimity as possible. In addition to Indonesia, three other Council countries — Libya, South Africa and Vietnam — had expressed reservations.

To address them, the final version included last-minute language changes making it clear that cargo inspections must conform to local and international laws and stressing the central role of the International Atomic Energy Agency and evidence in the latest report from Dr. ElBaradei on Feb. 22 that Iran was cooperating with the agency.

The resolution extends the reach of punishments in the two earlier measures, adopted in December 2006 and March 2007, but it does not make them tougher.

The text was drawn up after months of talks among the Council’s five permanent members — Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States — and Germany, which is not a Council member.

It repeats a pledge from the six countries to establish full relations and economic cooperation with Iran should it agree to suspend enrichment-related and reprocessing activities.

In Vienna, Britain, France and Germany said they were preparing a draft resolution critical of Iran that could be adopted by the agency’s policy-making group this week. The United States, Canada, Australia and Japan have already indicated privately that they will support such a move.

It would be the first time that the board had passed such a resolution on Iran since it referred Iran’s nuclear behavior to the Security Council for review two years ago.

The United States, which in the past has criticized Dr. ElBaradei for not being tough enough on Iran, expressed support for that approach. “Despite some progress in addressing past issues, troubling questions remain about Iranian activities that strongly suggest a clandestine weapons-related program,” Gregory L. Schulte, the American envoy to the agency, told reporters in Vienna.

He added, “Between the indications of weapons work, which would constitute a violation of Iran’s treaty obligations and Iran’s blatant violations of Security Council resolutions, there is strong reason for Iran’s file to remain open both in New York and in Vienna.”

Warren Hoge reported from the United Nations, and Elaine Sciolino from Paris.