A False Claim That Welfare Programs Did NOT Reduce Poverty

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johnkarls
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A False Claim That Welfare Programs Did NOT Reduce Poverty

Post by johnkarls »

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---------------------------- Original Message -----------------------------
Subject: Your Stats on History of African-American Fathers
From: ReadingLiberally-SaltLake@johnkarls.com
Date: Wed, November 18, 2020 6:29 am MST
To: George Kunath
Attachment:
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Dear George,

As you may recall, over the years during our weekly gabfests you have claimed that many decades ago African-American families typically featured fathers.

And that welfare programs forced the fathers to become absent.

Could you please provide the authority for your claim so that it can be posted on our RL bulletin board?

Thank you.

Your friend,

John K.


---------------------------- Original Message -----------------------------
Subject: Your Stats on History of African-American Fathers
From: George Kunath
Date: Wed, November 18, 2020 2:56 pm EST
To: ReadingLiberally-SaltLake @johnkarls.com
Attachment:
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Start with Tom Sowell. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7hmTRT8tb4

At about the 20-minute mark he quotes from "{The Legacy of Liberalism". Most black children were being raised by two-parent families in 1960. But, listen to the whole piece for much more. We should put Discrimination and Disparities on the book list.

Our current book will probably give us more support.

G


---------------------------- Original Message -----------------------------
Subject: Your Stats on History of African-American Fathers
From: ReadingLiberally-SaltLake @johnkarls.com
Date: Wed, November 18, 2020 3:50 pm MST
To: George Kunath
Attachment:
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Dear George,

Thank you very much for your prompt response.

It provides a link to a YouTube interview of Thomas Sowell regarding his book “Discrimination and Disparities” (Basic Books 3/5/2019).

And yes, indeed, 20 minutes 45 seconds into the YouTube, his book is quoted as saying –

“As of 1960, two-thirds of all black American children were living with both parents. That declined over the years, until only one-third were living with both parents in 1995….Among black families in poverty, 85 percent of the children had no father present.”

Unfortunately, the YouTube does NOT disclose the basis for this assertion.

Accordingly, I ordered the book from Amazon.com and will report the source (if any) for this assertion after the book arrives.

Your e-mail also expresses the hope that our current focus book “Great Society: A New History” might provide additional support for your frequent claim about African-American families.

I infer from that that Thomas Sowell is the only source for your claim so far.

BTW, the YouTube interview of Thomas Sowell had earlier discussed another quotation from “Discrimination and Disparities” –

“The plain fact is that the black poverty rate declined 87 percent in 1940 to 47 percent in 1960, prior to the great expansion of the welfare state that began in the 1960’s under the Johnson administration. There was a far more modest decline in the poverty rate among blacks after the Johnson administration’s massive ‘war on poverty’ programs began.”

THIS IS ABSOLUTELY BIZARRE!!!

Please refer to Section B of the Suggested Answers to this month’s Short Quiz which is available at viewtopic.php?f=614&t=1992&sid=7fbe7a77 ... 6b341d12e4.

The title of Section B is “Welfare Queens” – NOT Part of “The Great Society” Programs -- and cites the following facts –

(1) “Welfare Queens” was a term popularized by Pres. Ronald Reagan during his first presidential campaign in 1976 (which, BTW, was unsuccessful in obtaining the Republican nomination) as a derogatory term to describe women who allegedly misuse welfare or collect excessive welfare payments through fraud.

(2) The term “Welfare Queens” was targeted primarily at the Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) Program which was designed to provide “cash welfare payments for needy children who had been deprived of parental support or care because their mother or father was absent from the home, incapacitated, deceased or unemployed.”

(3) The Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) Program WAS ENACTED IN 1935 AS PART OF “THE NEW DEAL”!!!

(4) Pres. Bill Clinton campaigned in 1996 for, and signed in 1997, legislation to replace AFDC with a much more restrictive program that effectively ended federal welfare payments for needy children -- thereby eliminating the existence of "welfare queens.”

(5) Clinton’s 1996 re-election campaign slogan was “ending welfare as we know it”!!!

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Accordingly, the following CORRECTIONS are needed for the second quotation from Thomas Sowell’s book set forth above which, for your convenience, was –

“The plain fact is that the black poverty rate declined 87 percent in 1940 to 47 percent in 1960, prior to the great expansion of the welfare state that began in the 1960’s under the Johnson administration. There was a far more modest decline in the poverty rate among blacks after the Johnson administration’s massive ‘war on poverty’ programs began.”

The corrections???

[Editorial Note: The corrections were specified in the original e-mail to George Kunath with standard legal-profession markings – deletions struck through and additions underlined. Unfortunately, this bulletin board does NOT accommodate strike throughs or underlinings. Accordingly, in the following paragraph, deletions are contained in brackets [ ] and additions are shown in ALL CAPS.]

“The plain fact is that the black poverty rate declined 87 percent in 1940 to 47 percent in 1960, [DELETION - prior to the great expansion of the welfare state that began in the 1960’s under the Johnson administration. - END OF DELETION] DEMONSTRATING THE INCREDIBLE SUCCESS OF FDR’S AFDC PROGRAM. There was a far more modest decline in the poverty rate among blacks after [DELETION - the Johnson administration’s massive ‘war on poverty’ programs began.” - END OF DELETION] 1964 AND, PRESUMABLY, AFTER PRESIDENT CLINTON SUCCEEDED IN 'ENDING WELFARE AS WE KNOW IT' IN 1997.”

I will report whether Thomas Sowell is more accurate with his first assertion after his book arrives.

Your friend,

John K.

johnkarls
Posts: 2034
Joined: Fri Jun 29, 2007 8:43 pm

Promised Final Report on Thomas Sowell’s Claims

Post by johnkarls »

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---------------------------- Original Message -----------------------------
Subject: Promised Final Report on Thomas Sowell’s Claims
From: ReadingLiberally-SaltLake@johnkarls.com
Date: Fri, November 20, 2020 4:23 pm MST
To: George Kunath
Attachment:
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Dear George,

My second e-mail of two days ago examined two claims that Thomas Sowell had allegedly made in his book “Discrimination and Disparities” (Basic Books 3/5/2019) according to a YouTube whose link you had provided.


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THE SECOND THOMAS SOWELL CLAIM

My first e-mail of two days ago had asked you to provide the source of your frequent claim during our weekly gabfests over the years that many decades ago African-American families typically featured fathers.

The significance of that claim vis-à-vis the Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDR) Program enacted in 1935 as part of FDR’s New Deal was destroyed by a more important but erroneous claim by Thomas Sowell reported in the same YouTube and also attributed to “Discrimination and Disparities” -

“The plain fact is that the black poverty rate declined 87 percent in 1940 to 47 percent in 1960, prior to the great expansion of the welfare state that began in the 1960’s under the Johnson administration. There was a far more modest decline in the poverty rate among blacks after the Johnson administration’s massive ‘war on poverty’ programs began.”

Sowell was oblivious to the facts that –

(1) “Welfare Queens” was a term popularized by Pres. Ronald Reagan during his first presidential campaign in 1976 (which, BTW, was unsuccessful in obtaining the Republican nomination) as a derogatory term to describe women who allegedly misuse welfare or collect excessive welfare payments through fraud.

(2) The term “Welfare Queens” was targeted primarily at the Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) Program which was designed to provide “cash welfare payments for needy children who had been deprived of parental support or care because their mother or father was absent from the home, incapacitated, deceased or unemployed.”

(3) The Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) Program WAS ENACTED IN 1935 AS PART OF “THE NEW DEAL”!!!

(4) Pres. Bill Clinton campaigned in 1996 for, and signed in 1997, legislation to replace AFDC with a much more restrictive program that effectively ended federal welfare payments for needy children -- thereby eliminating the existence of "welfare queens.”

(5) Clinton’s 1996 re-election campaign slogan was “ending welfare as we know it”!!!

AND, ACCORDINGLY, SOWELL WAS IGNORANT OF THE FACT THAT HIS CITED DECLINE IN THE BLACK POVERTY RATES FROM 87% IN 1940 TO 47% IN 1960 ILLUSTRATED THE INCREDIBLE SUCCESS OF THE AFDC PROGRAM – RATHER THAN SOMETHING THAT HAD HAPPENED BEFORE THE ENACTMENT OF THE FEDERAL WELFARE PROGRAM!!!


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THE FIRST NOW-LARGELY-IRRELEVANT THOMAS SOWELL CLAIM

As mentioned above, my first e-mail of two days ago had asked you to provide the source of your frequent claim during our weekly gabfests over the years that many decades ago African-American families typically featured fathers.

And as just explained, the question of whether African-American families decades ago typically featured fathers has become largely irrelevant in terms of its relationship to the New Deal’s AFDR Program.

Nevertheless, I did promise to comment on Sowell’s claim about the composition of African-American families as soon as “Discrimination and Disparities” arrived from Amazon.com.

Sowell’s now largely-irrelevant claim in the YouTube was -

“As of 1960, two-thirds of all black American children were living with both parents. That declined over the years, until only one-third were living with both parents in 1995….Among black families in poverty, 85 percent of the children had no father present.”

That claim appears on p. 180 of “Discrimination and Disparities.”

Sowell cites as authority for those claims pp. 237-238 of “America in Black and White” by Stephan and Abigail Thernstrom (Simon & Shuster 1997).

For the record, the Thernstroms list the “Percent of Children Under 18 Living in Various Family Types, 1960-1995” as --

Two Black Parents

1960 – 67%
1970 – 59%
1980 – 42%
1995 – 33%

Two White Parents

1960 – 91%
1970 – 90%
1980 – 83%
1995 – 76%

Black Mother Only

1960 – 22%
1970 – 30%
1980 – 44%
1995 – 52%

White Mother Only

1960 – 7%
1970 – 8%
1980 – 14%
1995 – 18%

Black Father Only

1960 – Not Available
1970 – 2%
1980 – 2%
1995 – 4%

White Father Only

1960 – Not Available
1970 – 1%
1980 – 2%
1995 – 3%

Neither Black Parent

1960 – Not Available
1970 – 10%
1980 – 12%
1995 – 11%

Neither White Parent

1960 – Not Available
1970 – 2%
1980 – 2%
1995 – 3%

And, apologizing for our bulletin board’s inability (as just demonstrated) to display tables succinctly using multiple columns, the Thernstroms list “The Concentration of Black Child Poverty in Single-Parent, Mother-Child Families: Percent of All Poor African-American Children in Fatherless Families, 1959-1994” as --

1959 – 29%
1969 – 58%
1979 – 77%
1995 – 85%


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CONCLUSION – THOMAS SOWELL EMBARRASING HIMSELF

It’s nice that Sowell has provided some interesting statistics for 1959-1995.

But it’s a shame that he thought the New Deal’s AFDR Program was enacted as part of The Great Society legislation in the mid-1960’s.

Accordingly, his statistics ARE IRRELEVANT TO THE INCREDIBLE SUCCESS OF THE AFDR PROGRAM FROM ITS ENACTMENT IN 1935 UNTIL SOWELL BEGINS HIS IRRELEVANT STATISTICAL BARRAGE IN 1959.

Thank you very much for responding to my initial inquiry.

Your friend,

John K.

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