Research Project No. 3 – American Energy Independence

[johnkarls]

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Alternate Topic – Proverbial “One-Armed Wallpaper Hangers” Who Are Workaholics!!!

The Suggested Discussion Outline for our 3/10/2021 meeting was just posted this morning at 9:43 am MST – it is available at viewtopic.php?f=631&t=2038&sid=88562c39 ... 80fcc712c7.

Sec. C of the outline claimed that I am a proverbial “one-armed wallpaper hanger” who doesn’t have time to chase every possible research project and asked for volunteers to step forward to research 3 projects and report back at our March 10 meeting.

The third research project described in Sec. 3 was to investigate whether the United States is actually energy independent.

If you click on the link for the discussion outline in the third-preceding paragraph and then scroll down to Sec. C’s discussion of the third research project, you will see –

(1) Bloomberg “cherry picked” the energy import/export statistics FOR A SINGLE WEEK IN DECEMBER 2018 to claim that the U.S. had become energy independent, while admitting that their banner headline was misleading because the net-export period would be “likely brief.”

(2) Nonetheless, the rest of the media (they always behave like lemmings) immediately began trumpeting the claim of energy independence – a few citing the Bloomberg article but most not bothering to explain the basis of their claim.

(3) The CIA’s “World Factbook” reported for 2017 (the last year for which it contained such data at the time of the Bloomberg article) that the U.S. had an energy SHORTFALL of 23%.

(4) To make matters worse, Bloomberg cited support for its claim of energy independence from the American Petroleum Institute (a private organization of the American oil & gas industry) – whose website showed the NET-IMPORT GAP narrowed slightly in 2018 BUT WAS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ELIMINATED BY 2040.


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Today’s Research Report

Obviously, I am a hopeless workaholic because a mere 4 hours after posting the Discussion Outline containing an SOS for help on three research projects, of which the third was to investigate whether the U.S. is truly energy independent these days, I WAS BACK IN THE SADDLE.

The first stop was www.cia.gov > World Factbook > United States > Energy which gets you to https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/ ... es/#energy.

I “began to smell a rat” since the Central Intelligence Agency has NOT updated its energy statistics since 2017!!! And even for 2017, most of its energy stats are still “estimates”!!!

So I began casting around for other sources that would be considered authoritative.

AND STRUCK GOLD!!!

QUICK NEWS FLASH – THE U.S. INDEED HAS BECOME ENERGY INDEPENDENT FOR 2019 AND 2020 AS A RESULT OF FRACKING!!!

Per the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Agency’s “Monthly Energy Review” (available at https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/mo ... df/mer.pdf) -- Table 1.1 entitled “Primary Energy Overview” (all numbers are quadrillion Btu) –

For 2010 –

U.S. Fossil Fuel Production – 58.159
Total U.S. Energy Production – 74.909
Total U.S. Energy Consumption – 97.514
Net Imports – 21.690

For 2011 –

U.S. Fossil Fuel Production – 60.529
Total U.S. Energy Production – 78.108
Total U.S. Energy Consumption – 96.872
Net Imports – 18.375

For 2012 –

U.S. Fossil Fuel Production – 62.296
Total U.S. Energy Production – 79.254
Total U.S. Energy Consumption – 94.387
Net Imports – 15.801

For 2013 –

U.S. Fossil Fuel Production – 64.184
Total U.S. Energy Production – 81.866
Total U.S. Energy Consumption – 97.130
Net Imports – 12.835

For 2014 –

U.S. Fossil Fuel Production – 69.622
Total U.S. Energy Production – 87.757
Total U.S. Energy Consumption – 98.297
Net Imports – 10.971

For 2015 –

U.S. Fossil Fuel Production – 70.190
Total U.S. Energy Production – 88.295
Total U.S. Energy Consumption – 97.407
Net Imports – 10.892

For 2016 –

U.S. Fossil Fuel Production – 65.430
Total U.S. Energy Production – 84.337
Total U.S. Energy Consumption – 97.384
Net Imports – 11.259

For 2017 –

U.S. Fossil Fuel Production – 68.447
Total U.S. Energy Production – 88.129
Total U.S. Energy Consumption – 97.660
Net Imports – 7.512

For 2018 –

U.S. Fossil Fuel Production – 75,758
Total U.S. Energy Production – 95.780
Total U.S. Energy Consumption – 101.235
Net Imports – 3.610

For 2019 –

U.S. Fossil Fuel Production – 81.354
Total U.S. Energy Production – 101.437
Total U.S. Energy Consumption – 101.471
Net Imports – (0.610) – i.e. Net EXPORTS

For 2020 –

U.S. Fossil Fuel Production – 75.734
Total U.S. Energy Production – 95.672
Total U.S. Energy Consumption – 92.974
Net Imports – (3.475) – i.e., net EXPORTS

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PS -

To forestall any wisecracks from wise guys/women regarding the last sentence of my Suggested Discussion Outline which said –

“Yours Truly would be willing “to bet the ranch” that even with fracking, the U.S. is NOT energy independent – even for energy consumption levels restrained by COVID.” –

(1) As explained above, I was justified in “smelling a rat” based on the CIA’s refusal to update its World Factbook.

(2) No, I did NOT have a “ranch” to bet.

(3) In any event, I accepted my own bet and beat myself!!!

(4) So even if I pay off the bet by transferring to myself a “ranch” that does not exist, I do not have an increased U.S. income tax liability because for taxpayers who itemize deductions, gambling losses can be claimed to the extent they offset gambling winnings (see, e.g., https://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc419).

(5) And yes, I have always itemized deductions – indeed, for most of my life I followed in the footsteps of my parents and had charitable deductions in excess of the limitation of 50% of income.

(6) And no, I have learned my lesson and will refrain from tackling Research Project No. 1 (“Natural Gas – a “clean” fuel???) and Research Project No. 2 (Pope Francis’ Global Warming Crusade).