July 27th Chris Matthews Show on Racial Issues

[johnkarls]

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Editorial Comment –

As if on cue, The Chris Matthews Show (which aired only a few hours after our Second Quiz was sent to our 130 e-mail subscribers) addressed racial issues in the Presidential campaign as did our Second Quiz.

It should be noted that of the four top reporters on Chris’ panel, Eugene Robinson (Columnist for the Washington Post) is African American.

It should also be noted that after addressing the impact of Barack Obama’s race on the presidential campaign for approximately 10 minutes, even more time was spent on Barack’s troubles with “Jewish voters” – and it is fair to say that so much time spent on “Jewish voters” who Chris Matthews had already noted comprise an infinitesimal percentage of the American electorate means that Chris and his panel were treating “Jewish voters” as “code” for a significant portion (if not the majority) of the American news media.


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The Chris Matthews Show
Official Transcript - July 27, 2008


Announcer: This is THE CHRIS MATTHEWS SHOW. Today...

CHRIS MATTHEWS, host:

Deer in the headlights. Barack Obama's riding high, but many Americans are so uncertain about him they're frozen in their tracks. What's got them worried? Why can't he close the deal? What's he got to do?

Tour de force. He nailed the threat in Afghanistan. He allied with the Iraqis on withdrawal. On tour with Petraeus he acted like his future commander. Oh, yeah, and he sunk that basket from 40 beet. He's go the mo, but has he got the stuff?

And finally, oy vey. Why can't Barack Obama get Jewish voters to go with him the way they did for Gore and Kerry? Is it something he said?

Hi, I'm Chris Matthews. Welcome to the show.

CHRIS MATTHEWS, host:

Gloria Borger's senior political analyst for CNN and a columnist for U.S. News & World Report. Eugene Robinson writes a column for The Washington Post. Elisabeth Bumiller's covering the campaign for The New York Times. And Joe Klein writes a column for Time magazine.

First up, Barack Obama's on a roll. His global tour earned him praise over Iraq, Afghanistan and showed voters back home he's got global appeal. It was on full display in Berlin on Thursday.

Senator BARACK OBAMA: (Thursday) People of Berlin and people of the world, the scale of our challenge is great. The road ahead will be long. But I come before you to say that we are heirs to a struggle for freedom. We are a people of improbable hope with an eye toward the future, with resolve in our heart. Let us remember this history and answer our destiny and remake the world once again. Thank you, Berlin. God bless you. Thank you.

MATTHEWS: But the week didn't go as swimmingly for John McCain. With Obama in the Mideast, McCain was up in Kennebunkport in a golf cart; and with Obama standing before 200,000 cheering Germans, McCain had to settle for the cheese aisle. But will the excitement surrounding Obama's campaign pay off in November? McCain hopes he can stop that from happening.

Senator JOHN McCAIN: (Thursday) They need a steady hand at the tiller. That's what I'm going to try to convince them of, and I think I can do it.

MATTHEWS: According to a new NBC poll, some key groups agree, saying Obama's riskier than McCain. Those groups include the majority of white suburban women, white-collar workers and regular church-goers.

Gene, we're looking at the problem. He's--all the issues say vote Democrat this November, but the polls are almost even. He's just barely ahead of McCain. What's up?

*****
TEXT:

Obama is the Riskier Choice

White Suburban Women
White-Collar Workers ($50-75k)
Regular Church-goers

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll - July 23
*****

Mr. EUGENE ROBINSON (Columnist, The Washington Post): Well, OK, if you want to be anodyne about it, you say, well, they don't really know him yet. McCain is better known. But let's not ignore the 800-pound gorilla. He's black. He's the first major party African-American presidential candidate. He's got a real shot of winning. Is that an issue--unspoken, but is that an issue in this race? Is that a reason for people's hesitancy?

MATTHEWS: Are the pollsters getting it honestly, do you think? Are they picking up on that problem or is people just hiding their own worst prejudices, if you will?

Mr. ROBINSON: You know, I don't--I don't know. The pollsters might be picking up people's, you know, uncertainty. It might be picking up some sort of unexpressed fears or apprehensions. The pollsters might not be asking the right people.

MATTHEWS: Yeah.

Mr. ROBINSON: Did they tell you the truth. I mean, there might be—the people they're asking might not be the totality of the electorate that comes out to vote.

MATTHEWS: Mm-hmm. This would be my concern if I was working for Barack Obama, if I were he, I would worry about this. He saw this coming, this resistance to him in big states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana...

Ms. GLORIA BORGER (CNN Senior Political Analyst): Mm-hmm.

MATTHEWS: Starting in Ohio, actually. And yet when he went in and campaigned, with all his money and all his excitement and big crowds and rallies and T-shirts, he couldn't crack it. If he couldn't crack that white, working-class resistance, if you will, in the primaries, how's he going to do it when he can't go door to door in the general election?

Ms. BORGER: Well, I think, first of all, perhaps the big rally in Berlin is not the way to do it. I...

MATTHEWS: The Tiergarten wasn't the way to start?

Ms. BORGER: I'm not--I'm not quite sure--and if you remember, during the primaries, the Obama campaign cut out all those huge rallies when they decided he needed to connect with voters. Look...

MATTHEWS: Why does a big crowd, which McCain couldn't get in a million years, why is that a negative?

Ms. BORGER: Well, we've seen enough of it. We know he's a rock star. What voters want to know is, how much of a risk is Barack Obama? They want to hear more from him directly. Not in a speech. He gives a great speech, as all his opponents like to say, but they want to hear from him. Town hall meetings, which is why I think he should have done some town hall meetings...

MATTHEWS: You want him to connect?

Ms. BORGER: ...with McCain. He's got to connect on a personal level to convince people who want change...

MATTHEWS: OK.

Ms. BORGER: ...that he's not too much of a risk.

MATTHEWS: Who are they afraid of? Do they think he's Jeremiah Wright or Mick Jagger? What are they afraid of here? What are they--what's the risk factor?

Mr. JOE KLEIN (Time Columnist): What they're afraid of is their own futures. This country is really scared at this point. To quote a famous American, they're in the middle of this psychological recession, right? Phil Gramm...

MATTHEWS: Dr. Phil told them, too.

Ms. BORGER: Mental, mental, mental.

Mr. KLEIN: Mental recession. And so, when--I suspect that when the average American looks at that scene in Berlin, he or she says to themselves, `Why isn't he here? You know, why isn't he dealing with this--you know, my foreclosure problem?'

MATTHEWS: Ah.

Mr. KLEIN: Why isn't he--you know, why isn't he dealing with our economy? Now, to be fair, this has been very carefully planned by the Obama campaign. They took these two weeks, and they're trying to get issues off the table, to build the kind of trust that they're going to need to get the votes in November. They had to establish the fact that he could be a credible commander in chief.

MATTHEWS: So when's he doing a meat and potatoes...

Mr. KLEIN: They've done that. They've done that.

MATTHEWS: When's he doing meat and potatoes? When's he get back to regular stuff?

Mr. KLEIN: Second week in August. I think that what they're hoping is that, through the fall, the issue is going to be the economy, where they have a--where they have really aggressive government activist plans that they hope the public is ready for, and that's how they're going to sell...

MATTHEWS: OK.

Mr. KLEIN: ...the white suburban women, etc.

MATTHEWS: I love the--let's get into this.

Mr. KLEIN: That's what they're saying.

MATTHEWS: Let's get into irony here. I love irony in politics, as in life, and McCain's people were always sort of goosing this guy for weeks. `You don't know anything Iraq. You don't know anything about Iran. Get over there if you're going to do something.' He gets over there, and he's a rock star. Are they a little upset that they pushed him so hard to create this amazing PR for him?

Ms. ELISABETH BUMILLER (The New York Times): Well, I think, as Joe said, he was going to go anyway, so--but it's a great story line that `we caused this and now look what happened.' I mean, they were under no illusions that this was going to be a spectacular week for Obama. They knew that going in. Their plan was that this would be domestic policy week for John McCain, and while Obama's over there, you know, appealing to 200,000 Germans and French, he—you know, McCain would be here talking about the economy, health care, energy...

MATTHEWS: Yeah.

Ms. BUMILLER: Didn't work out.

Mr. KLEIN: You can't underestimate the impact of this week on the McCain campaign. His expertise was supposed to be foreign policy...

MATTHEWS: Right.

Mr. KLEIN: And you have the Iraqis endorsing Obama's Iraq plan, and you have George W. Bush, in effect, endorsing the idea of negotiating with the Iranians, which McCain is against.

MATTHEWS: OK.

Mr. ROBINSON: (Unintelligible).

Ms. BORGER: Throwing McCain under the bus.

Mr. ROBINSON: Right.

Mr. KLEIN: Throwing McCain under the bush.

Ms. BORGER: The other...

Mr. ROBINSON: You know one thing about the Berlin speech, too, which I think the commentariat has been--basically decided wasn't necessarily Obama's best moment in terms of how it played at home, but I'm not sure about that. You know, I've--anecdotally I've just heard from so many people who are concerned about America's image in the world, and not just, you know, liberals, but hard-nosed business people who...

MATTHEWS: Well, I'm with them.

Mr. ROBINSON: ...Republicans, who just feel that it....

MATTHEWS: Well, I'm with that sentiment because who doesn't like...

Mr. ROBINSON: It is just...

MATTHEWS: ...Gene and anybody here, who doesn't like to see the American flag being waved...

Mr. ROBINSON: Absolutely.

Ms. BORGER: But...

MATTHEWS: ...overseas?

Mr. ROBINSON: It's an amazing thing to see.

Ms. BORGER: But it does play into the narrative that Barack Obama is arrogant, and that who...

MATTHEWS: How so?

Ms. BORGER: Who is this first-term senator to go to Berlin, to give this huge speech? He's not president yet. And it's going to be the narrative that the McCain campaign...

Ms. BUMILLER: Premature.

Ms. BORGER: ...as Elizabeth knows...

Ms. BUMILLER: Premature victory lap is the narrative.

Ms. BORGER: Premature victory lap.

Ms. BUMILLER: By the end of the week, that was--that was the catch phrase,
yeah.

MATTHEWS: Yeah, Jon Stewart says he's not on the coin yet. So what do we
about...

Mr. ROBINSON: (Unintelligible).

MATTHEWS: ...the race question? I mean...

Mr. ROBINSON: Well...

MATTHEWS: ...everybody here, I mean, is this going to be something we can't even interpret through polling? We can talk about the Bradley effect because of what happened to Tom Bradley when he ran for governor of California and won in the polls twice and lost the governorship twice on election day. I've seen theories about this, that unless the African-American candidate is able to get his--the election number he needs, he won't get it that day. He has to get it in the polling, and Barack hasn't cracked about 45 percent.

Mr. KLEIN: I don't think it's something you can predict in advance.

MATTHEWS: What do we do about it?

Mr. KLEIN: You know, the pollsters may...

MATTHEWS: How do we talk about it before the election?

Ms. BORGER: We're talking about it.

Ms. BUMILLER: Yeah.

Mr. KLEIN: Well, the way we're doing it now.

MATTHEWS: Yeah.

Mr. KLEIN: You know, the pollsters may well be underestimating the number of people who'll vote for--who won't vote for Obama because he's black, but the pollsters also may be underestimating the number of blacks who are going to come out and vote for him and the number of young people who've never come out before.

MATTHEWS: Is that his strategy, to go around the older white person...

Ms. BORGER: Yeah.

MATTHEWS: ...who has a problem.

Mr. KLEIN: I think his strategy is to win them all, is to run the table. I think that they think...

MATTHEWS: Well, you only have so much time.

MATTHEWS: Can he--can he go to places where he's felt resistance, where Hillary did very well, for example? Can he spend enough time between now and November to convince voters, `You were wrong in the primaries. I'm your guy.' Can he do that?

Ms. BORGER: Look, I think it's a generational election. I mean, yes, it may break down...

Mr. KLEIN: It is.

MATTHEWS: But old people vote.

Ms. BORGER: But it's going to be--right, old people vote. And if young people vote in greater numbers than older people, then Barack Obama's likely to be the next president of the United States.

Mr. KLEIN: You know, it comes down...

Ms. BORGER: ...so it may be race...

MATTHEWS: Is that likely?

Ms. BORGER: It may be--I don't know the answer to that.

Mr. KLEIN: I think it comes down to economics. If he can convince them, which he couldn't do in Pennsylvania and Ohio, if he can convince those white voters that he is the only option for making their lives better...

MATTHEWS: OK.

Mr. KLEIN: ...economically, then he'll win.

MATTHEWS: Let's go the--back to the commander in chief issue. we asked The Matthews Meter, 12 of our regulars, has Obama's trip, the one--the Mideast and to Europe, leveled the commander in chief test with McCain? Nine say no, not yet; three say it has. Joe and Gloria, you both are resistant--well, you don't think he did it yet.

Ms. BORGER: No. I don't think he did it yet. And you know where he's going to have to do it? In the debates. That's going to be the moment...

MATTHEWS: Right.

Ms. BORGER: ...when he goes mano a mano with John McCain on national security, that's when the voters are going to decide. Not when he gives a speech in Berlin or shakes hands...

MATTHEWS: OK.

Ms. BORGER: ...in the Middle East.

Ms. BUMILLER: It's not--it's not enough...

MATTHEWS: OK.

Ms. BUMILLER: ...to go over and meet with foreign leaders...

Mr. ROBINSON: I...

Ms. BORGER: Well...

Ms. BUMILLER: ...for an afternoon.

MATTHEWS: OK. Let me ask you the bottom line. You can start, Gene.

Mr. ROBINSON: Yeah.

MATTHEWS: Who's going to be seen as riskier by most voters, John McCain or--who's a bigger risk factor?

Mr. ROBINSON: Well, right now I think most voters would say Barack...

MATTHEWS: In November.

Mr. ROBINSON: ...Obama, but in November, I don't know. I don't know who's going to be--who's going to be riskier.

MATTHEWS: What do you think, Gloria?

Ms. BORGER: I think right now it's Barack Obama. The election's about Obama, not McCain.

Mr. ROBINSON: But this is--this is changing.

MATTHEWS: I know. We got three or four months here.

Ms. BUMILLER: Definitely Barack Obama right now. You know. No time--yeah.

Mr. KLEIN: Well, you know, when you--when you look at personalities, it's Barack Obama. When you look at policies...

MATTHEWS: Barack Obama.

Mr. KLEIN: It's going to be John McCain.

MATTHEWS: You know what? I think--I think I agree with you, Joe, what you said a minute ago. These debates are going to be a total reopening of this whole election season...

Mr. KLEIN: Absolutely.

Ms. BORGER: Mm-hmm.

MATTHEWS: It's all going to start over again the night when 80 million people watch it, instead of the 20 million who've been paying attention.

Before we break, this week's trip to Israel highlighted Barack Obama's struggle connecting with Jewish voters the way other Democrats have. Jon Stewart even sent a correspondent down to Florida to get to the bottom of this.

(Begin clip of "The Daily Show" from Monday)

Mr. WYATT CENAC: I was sent down to talk about this election and what we can do to bridge the gap between Jews and blacks because...

Unidentified Man #1: I didn't know we had a problem between Jews and blacks.

Unidentified Woman: A lot of Jewish white people here will not vote for a black man.

Man #1: Well, it's ridiculous.

Unidentified Woman #2: Wyatt, I want to tell you something. All of a sudden, there is Barack Hussein Obama, and it was dropped...

Unidentified Man #2: His first name, Barack, is a Hebrew name.

Woman #2: Hussein--Hussein is a Hebrew name?

Man #1: What is it relevant whether Obama's middle name is Hussein or Yankl? I don't--couldn't care less.

Mr. CENAC: Perhaps I needed to take a different approach.

What do we have in common?

There are things we can agree on and things that unite us, like how many of us have ever been robbed by a black guy? I have. You know what I love? I love a good shmear of liver.

Unidentified Man #3: And I love fried chicken.

(End of clip)

MATTHEWS: Those are not actors.

Ms. BUMILLER: You know, definitely...

MATTHEWS: When we come back, could Jewish voters be what stands between Barack Obama and the White House? Plus, scoops and predictions right out of the notebooks of these top reporters. TELL ME SOMETHING I DON'T KNOW. Be right back.

***

MATTHEWS: Welcome back. While in the Mideast this week, Barack Obama made a point of visiting the Wailing Wall, one of the holiest places in the Jewish religion. He's met some resistance among American Jews, and even though they're a tiny part of the electorate, Jews could hold sway in some key swing states, particularly Florida, Nevada, Ohio, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. In a recent poll, only 60 percent of Jewish voters backed Obama, compared with 75 percent who backed John Kerry back in '04, 79 percent for Gore back in 2000. So will Obama's outreach efforts pay off? We asked The Matthews Meter, 12 of our regulars, will Obama get as much of the Jewish vote as Kerry did? Seven say no, Obama will fall short of the Kerry level; five say he'll eventually get there.

Joe and Gloria, you both voted no.

Ms. BORGER: We're agreeing?

MATTHEWS: I don't know how he got to you two guys, but anyway let me ask you this question. I was thinking, is it his name, Hussein? Is it the fact that he was raised--he had an Islamic father? Is it because he was raised in Indonesia? Is it because he's black? What combination of these things is causing trouble?

Ms. BORGER: All of--all of the above, and I also think Reverend Wright. I think, in the Jewish community there are a lot of questions raised...

MATTHEWS: What did he say that really got to people?

Ms. BORGER: Well, I don't even remember anymore.

MATTHEWS: God damn America, maybe.

Ms. BORGER: God damn America. But it was--but there was a sense that, gosh, how could he go to this church and not complain about this guy? And I think...

MATTHEWS: It reminded them of minister Farrakhan, perhaps.

Ms. BORGER: They don't like--and--right. And so I think there's enough there. And it's the risk question. It's the risk question again.

MATTHEWS: I understand. But also, I think in all communities, being very nice, saying communities, we're always nice about these things, but the fact is everybody seems to be affected by generation. The older you are, the more suspicious you are, the more negative you are to change. Joe, am I right?

Mr. KLEIN: Yes. But I also think that--and I've gotten into trouble for saying this in the past, but...

MATTHEWS: Well, say it again.

Mr. KLEIN: The fact is that there is a growing number of Jewish Americans who are buying into Republican arguments, especially neoconservative arguments, for the sake of Israel because the, you know, neoconservatives are very strong on attacking Iran and there are a lot of Jews who see Israel's existence threatened by Iran. And it's still a small minority of the Jewish population, but it's increasing the numbers who are voting Republican.

Ms. BORGER: But they immediately said everything's under...(unintelligible).

Ms. BUMILLER: But the other thing...

MATTHEWS: Elisabeth.

Ms. BUMILLER: ...about Jewish voters is I think that Barack Obama doesn't have a long history with Jewish voters.

MATTHEWS: So true.

Ms. BUMILLER: And so--and so he's new to politics. He's, you know, two, you know, very short years in the Senate, and while he's saying all the right things on Israel, and he was a big hit earlier this summer before a major Jewish group where he spoke--it was the day after he secured the nomination. Said all the right things and people were very impressed. There's still no history...

MATTHEWS: It's going to you.

Ms. BUMILLER: ...so the question is, is he going to be with us when Israel does something that's not popular around the world, will he stand with us, like America has in the past?

MATTHEWS: I've noticed, by watching politicians, you're much better off, for example, being a second generation guy, like a Chris Dodd, or a Jerry Brown.

Mr. ROBINSON: Mm-hmm.

Ms. BUMILLER: Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.

MATTHEWS: Someone who's had a history dealing with the Jewish community where they know you're a reliable friend of Israel. It's not something you're just promising. Did you notice, Gene, the other day, he said, `If you want to know where I'm going, look at where I've been.' He had pointed to his past.

Mr. ROBINSON: Mm-hmm.

MATTHEWS: But unfortunately for him, he doesn't have a long history of political involvement.

Mr. KLEIN: But in fairness to him...

Mr. ROBINSON: Well, but he is--I mean, he is a senator from Illinois. There are Jews in Chicago, you know.

MATTHEWS: I know.

Ms. BORGER: I heard.

Mr. ROBINSON: I mean, one wonders where...

MATTHEWS: And they're allies with him.

Mr. ROBINSON: Yeah...(unintelligible)

MATTHEWS: And they're allied with him.

Mr. ROBINSON: I mean, one wonders where they, you know, a few of those voices could be...

MATTHEWS: Why doesn't he bring--if I were him--I'm not his adviser...

Mr. ROBINSON: ...coming out.

MATTHEWS: ...why doesn't he bring out about five or 10, you know, of these guys, `Jews like me.'

Ms. BORGER: He thought it would be insulting actually to take them on his trip. He didn't need to do that. He felt that it--there was a discussion about that and they--and they decided against it. I think he can assuage a lot of the concerns of the Jewish community with his vice presidential pick.

Ms. BUMILLER: Now, he did...

MATTHEWS: How so?

Ms. BORGER: Well, if he picks somebody with a history, as we were talking about...

MATTHEWS: Ah.

Ms. BORGER: ...of support of Israel...

MATTHEWS: Evan Bayh. Two generations...

Ms. BORGER: Joe Biden, also. Could be.

MATTHEWS: Yeah.

Mr. ROBINSON: Mm-hmm.

Mr. KLEIN: You know, this is--the irony here is that this is a guy who has been criticize--was criticized when he ran for Congress for being too close to the Jewish community. I mean, you know, he has--he has a traditional--he is no different than almost any other Americans politician when it comes to Jewish issues.

MATTHEWS: Yeah. I just love those people talking in Florida, by the way. I had--I hope we all--every time I have a conversation with someone my age, our friend Jerry...(unintelligible)...is always saying, `I think we're beginning to sound like guys down on Miami on the park bench. We're going to talk about health and all that stuff.'

Mr. KLEIN: Well, you know, that...

Ms. BUMILLER: But that--but that...

Mr. KLEIN: Well, you know, after 4,000 years of oppression, irony is kind of hardwired.

Ms. BUMILLER: But those, you know truer words have never been spoken. I know a number of extremely sophisticated Jewish voters who are not very far off from those views. I mean this is not just...

Mr. KLEIN: Mm-hmm.

Ms. BUMILLER: ...the people in this--what we just saw...

MATTHEWS: Yeah.

Ms. BUMILLER: ...you know, who think that Barack Obama is a Muslim or was a Muslim at one point.

MATTHEWS: Uh-huh.

Ms. BORGER: But it's generational.

Mr. KLEIN: Right.

Mr. ROBINSON: Generational.

MATTHEWS: How does McCain exploit that? You're covering him.

Ms. BUMILLER: How does he--I don't think he touches it.

MATTHEWS: Well, not touch it, but how does he exploit it? Because that's the best kind of exploitation.

Ms. BUMILLER: Last week when Barack Obama was meeting with the Israeli leaders and Palestinian leaders, McCain made sure, in an appearance in New Hampshire, to talk about how much he supports Israel and how strong...

MATTHEWS: Yeah.

Ms. BUMILLER: ...and he said there will never be a second Holocaust in this country.

Mr. KLEIN: He has been--he has been exploiting it. Every time he says we're not going to talk to Iran, he has a very specific audience in mind...

MATTHEWS: Yeah.

Mr. KLEIN: The people around that table.

MATTHEWS: Do you hear him playing his card?

Mr. ROBINSON: Yeah. Absolutely. Absolutely. And, you know, to a certain extent, I think it's working, you know, among Jewish voters.

Mr. KLEIN: At the margins between--the difference between...

Ms. BORGER: And Obama went to the Middle East and said everything is on the table with regards to Iran. That's what Jewish leaders wanted to hear.

MATTHEWS: OK.

Ms. BORGER: And they heard it.

MATTHEWS: OK. I'm going to bottom line this.

Mr. ROBINSON: And his...(unintelligible)...speech, you cannot give a more pro-Israel speech.

MATTHEWS: Will he get--will he get even 60 percent of the Jewish vote? Barack.

Ms. BORGER: Yes.

MATTHEWS: Really, on Election Day--on Election Day. Gene?

Ms. BORGER: Yes. Yes.

Mr. ROBINSON: Yeah, yeah.

Ms. BUMILLER: Yes.

Mr. KLEIN: Yeah.

MATTHEWS: OK. I'll be right back with scoops and predictions right out of the notebooks of these top reporters. TELL ME SOMETHING I DON'T KNOW. Be right back.

***

MATTHEWS: Welcome back.

Gloria, TELL ME SOMETHING I DON'T KNOW.

Ms. BORGER: Remember Hillary Clinton?

MATTHEWS: Sure do.

Ms. BORGER: There are still negotiations going on between the Clinton folks and the Obama folks about the convention, still not resolved about a roll call vote, but if there is a roll call vote for Hillary Clinton, watch it to occur in the morning.

MATTHEWS: OK.

Ms. BORGER: Out of prime time when it won't be as big a deal.

MATTHEWS: But if there's a roll call--quickly--and Hillary Clinton comes in, it's like a photo finish and she just loses to him, right? What would be the message to the country?

Ms. BORGER: `I'll be back.'

MATTHEWS: Yeah. And in fact, `I'm still here,' I think, maybe.

Ms. BORGER: Yeah.

MATTHEWS: Gene?

Mr. ROBINSON: This is a prediction. This question of Barack Obama and whether he's arrogant is going to be our next lesson in this sort of racial--course in race that we're having...

MATTHEWS: Right.

Mr. ROBINSON: ...this year. A lot of African-Americans hear uppity when people talk about him being arrogant.

MATTHEWS: Yeah, I know. That's a bad word. Yes.

Mr. ROBINSON: That's going to be a point of friction.

MATTHEWS: A bad word.

Mr. ROBINSON: Bad word.

Ms. BUMILLER: I could--I could be wrong but I think that McCain's going to pick his vice president closer toward the end of August, right after Obama does.

MATTHEWS: Wow.

Mr. KLEIN: I'm always wrong about vice presidential picks.

Ms. BUMILLER: You can play this next year...

Mr. KLEIN: But I think that one name that hasn't been mentioned on the Democratic side who may be getting some attention from the Obama people is Ken Salazar, the senator from Colorado, who is a very solid moderate, Latino and may really help pull Colorado into the Democratic column.

MATTHEWS: I think it's Romney and Biden.

Anyway, by the way, we have that extra feature on our Web site now where our panelists talk more about their tell me somethings.

I'll be right back with this week's BIG QUESTION: Will John McCain pick his running mate from the usual suspects, the Republican pols, or will he go outside the box? Be right back.

***

MATTHEWS: Welcome back.

John McCain trails narrowly in the polls, but his veep choice could change that, which brings us to this week's BIG QUESTION: Will John McCain pick one of the usual Republican suspects to run with him or will he go with a surprising choice?

Ms. BORGER: Usual Republican suspect.

MATTHEWS: OK.

Mr. ROBINSON: Usual suspect.

Ms. BUMILLER: Romney, probably.

MATTHEWS: That's very usual.

Mr. KLEIN: This--you know, this guy has a real comfort zone. You see him surrounded by his--the same group of friends every time you see him. Usual suspects.

MATTHEWS: OK. I think--I think you nailed it. Romney.

Thanks to a great roundtable: Gloria Borger, Eugene Robinson, Elizabeth Bumiller and Joe Klein.

That's the show. Thanks for watching. To catch a webcast of this show, go to thechrismatthewsshow.com. See you next week.

[Pat]

.
Editorial Comment –

Suggested answer 10 in the Second Quiz stated in part that on July 27th Chris Matthews and his four top-reporter guests “agreed that the impact of Barack Obama’s race is impossible to measure with polling because so many voters lie to pollsters to cover up their attitudes.”

As if to make sure that viewers had not missed this point, the following week (August 3rd) Chris Matthews made this issue the “Big Question” (the last feature of his weekly Sunday morning Chris Matthews Show on NBC). There follows the official transcript of that feature, in which Chris and the same four guests as the week before, re-affirmed their belief that polling is unreliable because of Barack’s race.


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MATTHEWS: Welcome back.

This week's BIG QUESTION, are voters misleading pollsters if they don't want Obama on racial grounds? In other words, can we trust the polls or are they unreliable because voters aren't honest about race? Gloria?

Ms. BORGER: I think generally they're not reliable. However, you see them all over the lot. In certain states, more voters say race matters than in--than in other states. So I don't know what...

MATTHEWS: No, can you trust when they say who they're going to vote for?

Ms. BORGER: Probably not. Probably not.

Mr. ROBINSON: Sometimes yes, sometimes no. This whole--the whole way people are seeing race in this campaign, it's--you know, we keep taking slices of the salami--we keep taking snapshots--it's changing. It changes from week to week.

MATTHEWS: It changes from Saturday night to Tuesday.

Mr. ROBINSON: So even the timeline is unreliable.

Ms. BUMILLER: No, I don't think people are honest. I think it's very hard to admit in a phone call, even to somebody you've never met before and you can't see, what you really, really think if you feel it's somehow racist.

Mr. KLEIN: Well, I think that, you know, there is a so-called Bradley effect but this year there's also a Barack effect, where in places--we've seen in states like Iowa--where you get a tidal wave of voters who are new voters, young, black, coming out and are skewing the, you know, the results...

MATTHEWS: Yeah.

Mr. KLEIN: ...you see in polls.

MATTHEWS: So, in other words, we may get a bad sample in our polling.

Mr. KLEIN: Right.

MATTHEWS: (Unintelligible)...I think there's a Bradley effect.

Thanks to a great roundtable: Gloria Borger, Eugene Robinson, Elisabeth Bumiller and Joe Klein.

And that's the show. Thanks for watching. To catch a webcast of this show, however, go to thechrismatthewsshow.com. See you next week.