Stu Eizenstat still repeating THE BIG PALESTINIAN LIE and ignoring THE NETANYAHY/DERMER PEACE PLAN in a 7/23/2024 speech

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Traditionally, each month’s “Reference Materials” section includes, inter alia, book reviews from -

The New York Times
The Wall Street Journal
The Washington Post

Both the Wall Street Journal and Washington Post have shirked their duty.

HOWEVER, in addition to the New York Times review, there is included in this section a 5/1/2024 e-mail sent to Stuart Eizenstat with Cc’s to the other participants in our weekly Harvard Law School Class of 1967 Zoom Chat.

The reasons for including the e-mail are –

(1) I was respectfully suggesting that Stuart stop his constantly repeating THE BIG PALESTINIAN LIE that the United Nations in 1947 stole Palestinian land and gave it to the Jews – rather than the truth that the U.N. simply tabulated who owned what as a result of the Arab Empire and Ottoman Empire policy for more than 1,000 years that everyone including Jews were welcome to purchase land; and

(2) I was respectfully suggesting that Stuart stop pushing a “two state solution” for the Israel/Palestinian conflict since THREE PREVIOUS “TWO STATE SOLUTION” ATTEMPTS HAVE FAILED due to the Palestinian refusal to this day to recognize Israel’s right to exist; and

(3) I had also been respectfully suggesting in an earlier 1/3/2024 e-mail to Stuart (Cc’s to our weekly Zoom Chat HLS classmates) that he address the Peace Plan enunciated by Ron Dermer and Benjamin Netanyahu immediately after Gaza’s 7 October 2023 massacre of Israelis.

The Dermer/Netanyahu Peace Plan is to destroy Hamas and proceed to occupy Gaza for years thereafter, similarly to the way the U.S. occupied Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan for many years to transform German/Japanese society so that today, Germany and Japan have for nearly 8 decades, been two of America’s most loyal allies.

[After all, since 1948 Palestinians have been “brain washed” since their cradles.]

Ron Dermer was the Israeli Ambassador to the United States 2013-2021 and since 2022 has been the Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs and, as such, served in Netanyahu’s War Cabinet until it was dissolved 6/17/2024 while remaining a close adviser since then.

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My copy of “The Art of Diplomacy” has not arrived yet from Amazon, so I do not know whether it follows any of my suggestions.

Respectfully submitted,

John Karls
7/19/2024

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7/24/2024 Addendum

Today there was posted in this section a transcript of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s 7/24/2024 Speech to a Joint Session of the U.S. Congress.

It includes the Netanyahu/Dermer Peace Plan to destroy Hamas and proceed to occupy Gaza for years thereafter, similarly to the way the U.S. occupied Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan for many years to transform German/Japanese society so that today, Germany and Japan have for nearly 8 decades, been two of America’s most loyal allies.

That portion of the speech was interrupted 5 times by applause.

That portion can be found by scrolling down in the transcript to the Peace Plan which is bounded by two rows of asterisks.

Respectfully submitted,

John Karls
7/24/2024
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Stu Eizenstat still repeating THE BIG PALESTINIAN LIE and ignoring THE NETANYAHY/DERMER PEACE PLAN in a 7/23/2024 speech

Post by johnkarls »

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Stuart Eizenstat made a speech on July 23 at a webinar of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy – an allegedly pro-Israel Washington DC think tank founded in 1985. The July 23 webinar was the day before Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke to a Joint Session of the U.S. Congress on July 24.

The Institute’s first Executive Director was Martin Indyk who served as President Clinton’s last Ambassador to Israel (2000-2001) during the SECOND failed “Two-State Solution” which was (as noted in Q&A-9 of the First Short Quiz) (A) widely reported to comprise an agreement between Israel and Yassir Arafat, Chairman of the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) and President of the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) which at that time governed both Gaza and the West Bank, BUT (B) widely reported to be renounced by Yasir Arafat upon his return from Camp David because he had not prepared his people for peace with Israel and he was likely to be assassinated.

Ambassador Inkyk passed away 2 days after the webinar on 7/25/2024.

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The principal reasons for posting the speech on our website –

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(1) Stu Eizenstat once again states, however cryptically this time, THE BIG PALESTINIAN LIE that the United Nations in 1948 stole land from the Palestinians and gave it to the Jews – his statement in the speech that follows below is bounded by two rows of asterisks.

As explained in Q&A-12 through Q&A-14 of the First Short Quiz, this is a lie because in 1948 the United Nations Special Committee on Palestine (UNSCOP) simply tabulated who owned what as a result of the policy of the Arab Empire and Ottoman Empire since 738 A.D. that everyone including Jews were welcome to purchase land.

There is beaucoup information backing up Q&A-12 through Q&A-14 in “Stuart Eizenstat constantly repeating THE BIG PALESTINIAN LIE, ignoring the Dermer/Netanyahu Peace Plan, etc.” at viewtopic.php?f=816&t=2540&sid=8c9e0d5d ... d8cc2bcd5b.

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(2) Stu Eizenstat once again studiously ignores the Netanyahu/Dermer Peace Plan proposed virtually immediately following the October 7 invasion of Israel by Hamas - his statement that does so can be found in the speech that follows below where it is bounded by two rows of asterisks.

As explained in Q&A-2 of the Second Short Quiz, the Netanyahu/Dermer Peace Plan is to destroy Hamas and proceed to occupy Gaza for years thereafter, similarly to the way the U.S. occupied Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan for many years to transform German/Japanese society so that today, Germany and Japan have for nearly 8 decades, been two of America’s most loyal allies.

As noted in Q&A-4 of the Second Short Quiz, in his 7/24/2024 Address to a Joint Session of the U.S. Congress, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu included the Netanyahu/Dermer Peace Plan and that portion of the speech was interrupted 5 times by applause.

[NB – if you did not see the speech on television, a transcript is available at viewtopic.php?f=816&t=2545&sid=88374edc ... 422db84886
where the Peace Plan is bounded by two rows of asterisks.]



---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: Eizenstat, Stuart
Date: Tue, Jul 30, 2024 at 4:18 PM EDT
Subject: Middle East
To: Donald Leka

Dear Don,

I hope all is well. To follow-up our HLS'67 discussion yesterday, you so expertly lead (sic – s.b. led), I wanted to share my remarks at the Washington Institute's webinar on July 23 (along with Dennis Ross and David Makovsky), the day before Prime Minister Netanyahu's speech to the Joint Session of Congress. You may wish to share this with our colleagues.

Best wishes,
Stu Eizenstat

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WASHINGTON INSTITUTE ON NEAR EAST POLICY
STU EIZENSTAT
JULY 23, 2024

IT IS DIFFICULT TO THINK OF A MORE POLITICALLY FRAUGHT TIME FOR THE PRIME MINISTER OF ISRAEL TO ADDRESS A JOINT SESSION OF CONGRESS. HE COMES IN THE MIDST OF AN INTENSE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, TURNED ON ITS HEAD BY PRESIDENT BIDEN’S DECISION TO WITHDRAW FROM THE RACE AND THE ALMOST CERTAIN NOMINATION OF VICE PRESIDENT HARRIS AS THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY’S PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE.

FOR MANY DECADES AFTER ITS FOUNDING, ISRAEL WAS A UNITING POLITICAL ISSUE ON THE RIGHT AND THE LEFT, AMONG REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS. UNFORTUANTELY, ISRAEL HAS NOW BECOME ONE OF THE MOST DIVISIVE FOREIGN POLICY ISSUES. U.S. VIEWS ON ISRAEL DRAMATICALLY DIVERGE ALONG PARTISAN LINES AND AGE GROUPS. IN A 2022 PEW POLL, REPULICANS HAVE MORE FAVORABLE VIEWS OF ISRAEL (WITH SOME 70% FAVORABLE) THAN DEMOCRATS (BARELY OVER 50%). AND WHERE OLDER AMERICANS HAVE POSITIVE VIEWS OF ISRAEL (60% OF THOSE 50-64 AND 69% OF THOSE OVER 65 YEARS OLD), A SIGNFICANT MAJORITY (56%) OF YOUNG ADULTS UNDER 30 HAVE AN UNFORABLE VIEW OF ISRAEL.

WHILE OLDER AMERICANS EXPRESS MORE POSITIVE FEELINGS TOWARD ISRAEL THAN TOWARD THE PALESTINIANS, MORE YOUNG US ADULTS UNDER 30 VIEW THE PALESTINIAN MORE FAVORABLY THAN THE ISRAEL PEOPLE (61% VS. 56%).

THIS PARTISAN AND POLITICAL AND AGE DIVIDE HAS GROWN LARGER SINCE THE GAZA WAR BEGAN IN OCTOBER 2023. A MARCH 2024 GALLUP POLL FOUND THAT A MAJORITY (55%) OF AMERICANS DISAPPROVE OF ISRAEL’S ACTIONS IN GAZA, WHILE ONLY 36% APPROVE. ALL THREE POLITICAL GROUPS, REPUBLICANS, DEMOCRATS, AND INDEPENDENTS HAVE SEEN DROPS IN APPROVAL ,BUT IT IS MORE PROUNCED AMONG DEMOCRATS, WITH 75% DISAPPROVING, WHILE TWO-THIRDS OF REPUBLICANS STILL APPROVE.

THIS HAS BEEN AGGRAVATED BY THE MOST RIGHT-WING GOVERNMENT IN ISRAELI HISTORY. PRIME MINISTER NETANYAHU HAS BECOME A DIVISIVE FIGURE. IN 2015, HE ADDRESSED A JOINT SESSION OF CONGRESS AT THE INVITATION OF A REPUBLICAN SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE, WITHOUT PRIOR APPROVAL OF PRESIDENT OBAMA, AND USED THE PLATFORM TO SHARPLY CRITICIZE THE EMERGING NUCLEAR AGREEMENT WITH IRAN THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION WAS SEEKING TO CONCLUDE. ONLY RECENTLY, THE PRIME MINISTER PUBLICLY BLAMED THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION FOR NOT PROVIDING ISRAEL WITH THE MILITARY EQUIPMENT AND AMMUNITION NEEDED FOR ISRAEL TO DEFEAT HAMAS. THE ONLY HOLD-UP WAS OVER A SHIPMENT OF 2000 POUND BOMBS (WHICH I THINK SHOULD HAVE BEEN DELIVERED). YET PRESIDENT BIDEN HAS BEEN STAUNCHLY SUPPORTIVE OF ISRAEL’S ACTIONS AGAINST HAMAS, EVEN AT THE EXPENSE OF LOSING POLITICAL SUPPORT AMONG YOUNG, MINORITY, AND PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS (LESS THAN HALF, 47%) OF DEMOCRATS APPROVE OF HIS HANDLING THE MIDDLE EAST CRISIS, AND ESPECIALLY AMONG YOUNG AMERICANS BY BEING TOO FAVORABLE TO ISRAEL. GALLUP POLL, MARCH 27, 2024, PEW POLL, MARCH 21,2024).

DEEPLY TROUBLING, AND UNPRECEDENTED IN THE MIDST OF WAR OF SELF-DFEENSE BY ISRAEL, AFTER THE ACCIDENTAL ISRAELI AIRSTRIKE WHICH KILLED SEVEN WORLD CENTRAL KITCHEN AID WORKERS, 55 HOUSE DEMOCRATS, INCLUDING STAUNCH, LONG-TIME ISRAELI SUPPORTERS LIKE FORMER SPEAKER NANCY PELOSI AND MY CONGRESSMAN JAMIE RASKIN, SIGNED A LETTER TO PRESIDENT BIDEN (APRIL 5, 2024), ASKING HIM TO WITHHOLD THE NEW ARMS PACKAGE TO ISRAEL AND ANY FUTHER OFFENSIVE ARMS TRANSFERS TUNIL A FULL INVESTIGATION WAS COMPLETED, AND IF THE STRIKE VIOLATED US OR INTERNATIONAL LAW, TO CONTINUE TO WITHHOLD TRANSFERS UNTIL THOSE RESPONSIBLE WERE HELD ACCOUNTABLE. AND MORE BROADLY, TO WITHHOLD ARMS TRANSFERS IF ISRAEL “FAILS TO SUFFICIENTLY MITIGATE HARM TO INNOCENT CIVLIANS IN GAZA: AND “FAILS TO FACILITATE…THE TRANSPORT AND DELIVERY OF HUMANITRAIN AID INTO GAZA.”

JUST A FEW DAYS AGO, I RECEIVED AN ANGUSHED CALL FROM A MEMBER OF THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATAVIES I HAVE KNOWN FOR DECADES, WHO REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF ISRAELI ACTIONS IN GAZA, DESPITE PRO-PALESTINIAN DEMONSTRATIONS IN HER DISTRICT, DISTRAUGHT ABOUT WHETHER TO ATTEND THE PRIME MINISTER’S SPEECH, AND MORE BROADLY, WHAT MESSAGE SHE SHOULD CONVEY TO HER CONSTITUENTS ABOUT ISRAEL’S POLICY TOWARD GAZA AND THE WEST BANK AFTER THE WAR.

WHAT UNIFYING MESSAGE OF HOPE WILL THE PRIME MINISTER DELIVER TOMORROW TO HELP HEAL THE PARTISAN WOUNDS FROM ISRAEL’S MAJOR ALLY IN THE WORLD AND TO SIGNAL AN END TO THE CONFLICT AND AN ACHIEVABLE POST-WAR GOVERNANCE AND SECURITY STRUCTURE?.


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I FERVENTLY WISH THAT WE COULD TEACH THE STUDENT CAMPUS DEMONSTRATORS AND HAMAS SYMPATHERIZERS, INCLUDING MANY FACULTY BASIC HISTORY:

*************************THE BIG PALESTINIAN LIE*************************
>1947: THE UN CREATED A JEWISH AND ARAB STATE OUT OF THE BRITISH MANDATE. ISRAEL ACCEPTED THE DIVISION. THE ARAB STATES AND PALESTINIANS WENT TO WAR.
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>1978: DESPITE MAKING EVERY EFFORT BY THE CARTER ADMINISTRATION TO INCLUDE THE PLO IN THE CAMP DAVID NEGOTIATIONS BETWEEN ISRAEL AND EGYPT, THEY REFUSED THE BASIC CONDITION OF ACCEPTING UN RESOLUTON 242, LAND FOR PEACE.

>JULY 2000, AS DEPUTY SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY, RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ECONOMIC DIMENSION OF THE PEACE PROCESS (AS DENNIS ROSS WAS FOR THE POLITICAL SIDE), I WENT TO GAZA AND SAW A BEAUTFUL SIGHT AS A RESULT OF LEGISLATION (QUALIFYING INDUSTRIAL ZONE) CONGRESS PASSED AT OUR REQUEST TO GRANT DUTY-FREE ENTRY OF PRODUCTS TO THE US WITH AS LITTLE AS 10% ISRAELI CONTENT. THERE WERE 30 PLANTS EMPLOYING 1200 GAZANS, WITH A SECOND PHASE BEGINNING WITH ANOTHER 30 PLANTS, AND IN THE PLANT I VISITED THERE WAS ONLY ONE UNARMED ISRAEL SOLDLIER OVERSEEIENG THE PALESTINIAN PRODUCTS BEING LOADED ONTO A FLATBED TRUCK GOING TO THE ERETZ CROSSING AND TO THE GAZA AIRPORT THE US CORPS OF ENGINEERS BUILT TO FACILITIATE GAZAN EXPORTS.

WHEN I REPORTED THIS TO PRESIDENT ARAFAT OF THE PALESTINAN AUTHORITY, HE ASKED ME TO CONVEY TO PRESIDENT THAT HE DID NOT WANT TO BE INVITED TO CAMP DAVID FOR A SECOND SUMMIT, BECAUSE HE SAID HE WAS NOT WILLING TO MAKE THE COMPROMISES PRESIDENT CLINTON NEEDED.

>LATER THAT MONTH IN MID-JULY 2000, ARAFAT REJECTED WHAT BECAME THE CLINTON PARAMETERS, GETTING 95% OF THE WEST BANK BACK, EAST JERUSALEM AS THE CAPITAL OF A PALESTINIAN STATE, AND FAMILY REUNIONS.

>INSTEAD, ARAFAT SUPPORTED THE SECOND INTIFADA IN 2000.

>2005. PRIME MINISTER SHARON ORDERED ALL IDF SOLDIERS OUT OF GAZA, AS WELL AS 7000 ISRAELI SETTLERS FORCIBLY REMOVED. THEY LEFT THEIR GREENHOUSES AND INFRASTRUCTURE INTACT.

>2006. HAMAS WAS ELECTED AND AFTER A CIVIL WAR WITH FATAH, TOOK CONTROL OF GAZA AND IN 2007 SENT ROCKETS INSTEAD OF ROSES TO ISRAEL

2008-2009. PRIME MINISTER OLMERT OFFERED PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY PRESIDENT ABBAS (ABU MAZEN) 96% OF THE WEST BANK, EAST JERUSALEM AS A CAPITAL AND 50,000 PALESTINIAN REFUGEES TO RETURN TO ISRAEL. ABBAS REJECTED THE OFFER.


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THAT WAS THEN, GAZA IS NOW AS ISRAEL IS FIGHTING ITS LONGEST WAR SINCE ITS WAR OF INDEPENDENCE. LET ME START BY MAKING CLEAR THAT MY VIEW IS HAMAS MUST BE DISABLED AS A MILITARY AND GOVERNING ORGANIZATION IN GAZA. IT IS A TERRORIST GROUP THAT INSTIGATED THE WORST SINGLE-DAY SLAUGHTER OF JEWS ON OCTOBER 7 SINCE THE HOLOCAUST. IT DID SO NOT TO ACHIEVE A PEACEFUL POLITICAL OBJECTIVE BUT AS A WRITTEN POLICY IN THEIR CHARTER TO ELIMINATE ISRAEL AS A JEWISH STATE FROM THE FACE OF THE EARTH. NO GOVERNMENT CAN PERMIT A PARTY OR GOVERNMENT ON ITS BORDERS COMMITTED TO ITS EXTERMINATION,AND ARMED TO DO SO.

SADLY, ISRAEL IGNORED MANY OF THE LESSONS I LEARNED FROM INTERVIEWS I CONDUCTED OF LEADING US GENERALS AND POLITICAL LEADERS INVOLVED IN WARS IN WHICH THE US HAS BEEN INVOLVED IN OUR LIFETIMES – FROM VIETNAM AND THE TWO BALKAN WARS IN BOSNIA AND KOSOVO TO THE TWO IRAQ WARS UNDER PRESIDENTS GEORGE H.W. BUSH AND GEORGE W. BUSH, FROM AFGHANISTAN TO LIBYA, FOR MY NEW BOOK THE ART OF DIPLOMACY: HOW AMERICAN NEGOTIATORS REACHED AGREEMENTS THAT CHANGED THE WORLD.

>ACCURATE INTELLIGENCE IS ESSENTIAL TO UNDERSTAND THE ENEMY, THEIR CAPABILITIES, HISTORY, AND CULTURE. ISRAELI INTELLIGENCE AND THE STRATEGY THAT FOLLOWED FAILED THE ISRAELI PEOPLE. THE ISRAELI GOVERNMENT CONSCIOIUSLY WEAKENED THE ALREADY WEAK PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY, COMMITTED TO A TWO STATE SOLUTION, PERMITTED QATAR AND OTHERS TO SUPPORT HAMAS, BELIEVING THEY COULD DOMESTICATE THEM, AND ALLOWED HAMAS TO GROW FROM A TERRORIST GROUP INTO A FULL-FLEDGED TERRORIST ARMY, WELL-TRAINED AND ARMED BY IRAN. JUNIOR INTELLIGENCE OFFICERS HAD THE FULL BATTLE PLAN FOR OCTOBER 7, BUT THE ISRAELI INTELLIGENCE LEADERSHIP DID NOT BELIEVE HAMAS HAD THE ABILITY TO CARRY IT OUT.

>A REASONABLY ACHIEVABLE MILITARY OBJECTIVE. HOLDING OUT THE GOAL OF “TOTAL VICTORY”, RATHER THAN PREVENTING HAMAS FROM BEING ABLE TO REGROUP AND MAINTAIN POWER IN GAZA, THE IDF’S OWN TOP SPOEKENSMAN, REAR ADMIRAL DANIEL HAGARI RECENTLY SAID (JUNE 20, 2024) THAT THE CENTRAL STATED GOAL OF THE WAR TO DESTROY HAMAS WAS NOT POSSIBLE AND TO MAINTAIN IT MEANT “THROWING SAND IN THE EYES OF THE PUBLIC. HAMAS IS AN IDEA. ANYONE WHO THINKS WE CAN ELIMIANTE HAAS IS WRONG. THE POLITICAL ECHELON NEEDS TO FIND AN ALTERNATIVE—OR IT (HAMAS) WILL REMAIN.” FORMER HEAVYWEIGHT BOXING CHAMPION MIKE TYSON SAID, “EVERYONE HAS A PLAN UNTIL THEY GET IN THE RING AND GET HIT IN THE MOUTH”. THIS HAS BEEN A HARD LESSON FOR ISRAEL.

***************ONCE AGAIN STUDIOUSLY IGNORING THE NETANYAHU/DERMER PEACE PLAN***************
>HAVE A POST-WAR POLITICAL PLAN IN PLACE BEFORE SHOOTING THE FIRST BULLET, A LESSON KEY OFFICIALS FROM THE BUSH II ADMINISTRATION LEARNED FROM THE IRAQ WAR (STEVE HADLEY). WAR IS BY DEFINITION DISRUPTIVE OF THE ESTABLISHED ORDER SO THERE NEEDS TO BE AN ACHIEVEABLE POLITCAL PLAN TO HAVE A NON-HAMAS GOVERNMENT IN PLACE TO PROVIDE BASIC SERVICES, SECURITY, AND TO MANAGE THE REBULIDNG OF GAZA. THIS DOES NOT/NOT EXIST TO THIS DAY.
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>HAVE A PLAN TO CONVINCE THE CIVILIAN NON-COMBATANTS THAT BY DISPLACING HAMAS THEY WILL HAVE A BETTER LIFE. HAMAS CANNOT BE DEFEATED BY MILIARY MEANS ALONE. THERE MUST BE A MARRIAGE OF MLITARY POWER AND POLITICAL ACTION. GENERAL PETRAEOUS STRESSED THIS TO ME THAT THE BASIS FOR TURNING AROUND THE IRAQ WAR WAS: CLEAR, HOLD, AND BUILD. HE HAD A SIGN IN HIS OFFICE, “HOW MANY IRAQI CIVLIANS DID WE HELP TODAY?” THIS HAS NOT BEEN A GOAL OF THE ISRAELI OFFENSIVE SO FAR.

WHERE DOES ISRAEL GO FROM HERE? I BELIEVE THAT ISRAEL’S REAL SECURITY MUST COME FROM PLACING GAZA INTO A BROADER REGIONAL CONTEXT AND BEING EMBEDDED IN A US-LED COALITION OF MODERATE SUNNI ARAB STATES FOR MILITARY, INTELLIGENCE, AND ECONOMIC SECURITY TO COMBAT IRAN IS ISRAEL’S GREATEST EXISTENTIAL SECURITY THREAT AND ITS “AXIS OF RESISTANCE”, WITH ITS PROXIES THE HOUTIS IN YEMEN, HEZBOLLAH IN LEBANON, HAMAS IN GAZA, SYRIA, AND IRANIAN MILITIAS IN IRAQ. ISRAELCAN BECOME A KEY MEMBER OF A COALITION OF US-SUPPORTED MODERATE SUNNI ARAB STATES, WITH MANY OF WHOM ISRAEL ALREADY HAS PEACE AGREEMENTS (EGYPT, JORDAN, UAE, BAHRAIN, MOROCCO), WITH THE CROWN JEWEL SAUDI ARABIA POISED TO JOIN THE ABRAHAM ACCORDS NEGOTIATED IN THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION BEFORE OCTOBER 7. IN AUGUST 2023, SAUDI ARABIA HAD BEGUN ENTERING INTO PUBLIC ECONOMIC AGREEMENTS WITH ISRAELI COMPANIES THROUGH THEIR NON-ISRAELI SUBSIDIARIES. INDEED, THE TIMING OF THE BRUTAL ATTACK WAS LIKELY TO DETER SAUDI NORMALIZATION.

BUT AFTER THE WAR, HAVING NORMALIZED RELATIONS WITH SAUDI ARABIA,AND ENLISTING THE MODERATE ARAB STATES IN THE SECURITY AND REBUILDING OF GAZA WILL REQUIRE THE ISRAELI PUBLIC TO MAKE A TOUGH CHOICE: GO IT ALONE IN TRYING TO FIX GAZA AND FACE IRAN, OR PROVIDING WHAT THESE STATES REQUIRE: SOME TIMETABLE AND PERSPECTIVE FOR AN EVENTUAL PALESTINIAN STATE. IT DOES NOT HAVE TO BE TOMORROW; IT CAN BE CREATED CONSISTENT WITH ISRAELI SECURITY NEEDS. BUT A TWO-STATE SOLUTION, WITH A REFORMED AND STRENGTHEND PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY TAKING OVER GOVERNANCE OF THE WEST BANK AND GAZA, AS THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION’S PLAN ENVISIONS,

>THERE IS ALREADY A PROMISING BEGINNING UNDER THE ABRAHAM ACCORDS. BETWEEN 2020-2023, NON-DEFENSE AND NON-GAS TRADE WITH ISRAEL’S ARAB NEIGHBORS TOTALED OVER $4 BILLION AND TRADE BETWEEN ISRAEL AND THE ABRAHAM ACCORD COUNTRIES IN DEFENSE AND CYBER SECTORS TOTALLED $12.5 BILLION IN 2022 ALONG, ACCOUNTING FOR 12% OF ISRAEL’S DFEENSE EXPORTS THAT YEAR.

>SINCE THE GAZA WAR BEGAN, NO COUNTRY WHICH ENTERED INTO A PEACE AGREEMENT WITH ISRAEL BACKED AWAY FROM IT. HOWEVER, MUCH OF THE PRIVATE SECTOR COOPERATION HAS EITHER BEEN PUT ON HOLD OR HAS ONLY PROCEEDED “UNDER THE TABLE.” DESPITE THE BLEAK CURRENT STATE OF AFFAIRS, THERE ARE MEANINGFUL INDICATIONS THAT ISRAEL’S PROSPECTS FOR REGIONAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION WILL SIGNIFICANTLY BRIGHTEN AFTER THE GAZA WAR ENDS. THIS WILL CONSIST OF THREE CATEGORIES:

(1) A REGIONAL APPROACH TO REBUIDLING GAZA, AND ITS “DAY AFTER” GOVERNANCE , WHICH COULD SERVE AS A MODERATING FORCE. THE UAE CONFIRMED LAST WEEK THAT THEY WILL CONSIDER BEING PART OF A STABLISIZATION FORCE ALONGSIDE ARAB AND INTERNATIONALPARNTERS AT THE INVITATION OF A REFORMED PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY, BUT WOULD REQUIRE US LEADERSHIP, A REFORMED PA LEADERSHIP, AND A ROADMAP REUNITING GAZA AND THE WEST BANK UNDER A SINGLE PALESTINIAN GOVERNMENT, AND A “SIGNAL” TO “PALESTINIAN STATEHOOD THROUGH NEGOTIATIONS.”

(2) REGIONAL DEFENSE TO COUNTER IRAN. THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION HAS BOLSTERED REGIONAL COOPERATION ON AIR AND MISSILE DEFENSE THAT HAS ENABLED CLOSER COORDINATION BETWEEN ISRAEL AND ITS SUNNI NEIGHBORS. THIS WAS UNDERSCORED ON APRIL 13 WHEN THE US SUCCESSFULLY COORDINATED A REGIONWIDE MULTILATER EFFORT TO DEFEAT IRAN’S UNPRECENTED MISSILE AND DRON ATTACK AGAINST ISRAEL.

(3) MOST TRANSFORMATIONAL, WOULD BE ISRAELI-SAUDI NORMALIZATION. CROWN PRINCE MBS HAS CONTINUED TO SIGNAL HIS WILLINGNESS TO ENTER A US-SAUDI-ISRAELI MEGADEAL THAT WOULD INCLUDE NORMALIZED RELATIONS WITH ISRAEL IN RETURN FOR SIGNIFICANT MUTUAL DEFENSE ASSURANCES FROM THE U.S. SAUDI ARABIA IS FOCUSING ITS INVESTMENTS IN AI, FOOD AND AGRICULTURE, RENEWABLE ENERGY, AVIATION, AND LOCAL MANUFACTURING, WHERE ISRAELI COMPANIES THE ISRAELI GOVERNMENT HAVE A TRACK RECORD OF SUCCESSFULLY EXPORTING TECHNOLOGY TO OTHER COUNTRIES IN THE REGION. BUT THIS WILL REQUIRE CONTINUED US GOVERNMENT AND US PRIVATE SECTOR COMMITMENT TO INVEST IN PROMOTING THE ISRAEL-SAUDI ECONOMIC RELATIONSHIP.

BUT AGAIN, ALL OF THIS WILL NOT COME FREE. ISRAEL WILL HAVE TO CONFRONT THE PALESTINIAN CHALLENGE WHICH HAS BEDEVLIED ISRAELI POLITICS FOR DECADES AND HAS BECOME EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN PUBLIC SUPPORT FROM THE ISRAELI PUBLIC WHICH FEARS A PALESTINIAN STATE WILL ULTIMATELY BECOME A TERRORIST STATE LIKE HAMAS CREATED.

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