Donald “Gun-Boat-Diplomacy Wannabe” Trump

[solutions]

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---------------------------- Original Message -----------------------------
Subject: U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Awarding President Trump the Nobel Peace Prize for his Ukraine Peace Plan
From: Solutions
Date: Tue February 18, 2025 6:04 pm PST
To: ReadingLiberally-SaltLake@johnkarls.com
Attachment:
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Dear John,

Presumably you also witnessed U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent rhapsodizing over President Trump’s Ukraine Peace Plan for which Secretary Bessent Awarded President Trump the Nobel Peace Prize.

Presumably you have an opinion of his opinion which (your opinion) will include references to China and Taiwan.

Your friend,

Solutions


---------------------------- Original Message -----------------------------
Subject: Donald “Gun-Boat-Diplomacy Wannabe” Trump vis-à-vis Ukraine and Taiwan – and Chinese REAL-LIFE Gunboat Diplomacy vis-à-vis the World
From: ReadingLiberally-SaltLake@johnkarls.com
Date: Tue February 18, 2025 8:31 pm MST
To: Solutions
Attachment:
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Dear Solutions,

Thank you very much for your e-mail.

You presume correctly!!!

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FIRST, I was surprised to learn that Secretary Bessent’s only post-H.S. degree was a B.A. in Political Science.

As a successful hedge-fund manager, I had assumed incorrectly that it would have been in economics.

BTW, if Political Science really were a "Science," why wouldn't academia have long since changed its B.A. (Bachelor of Arts) to B.S. (Bachelor of Science)??? Perhaps because of the inevitable jokes that the Political Science B.S. stands for "B--l Sh--???

But no matter, because it definitely was not in HISTORY.

BUT EVEN IF HE KNOWS NOTHING ABOUT HISTORY, as a successful hedge-fund manager, Secretary Bessent would not have “bet the proverbial ‘family ranch’” on President Donald “Gun-Boat-Diplomacy Wannabe” Trump’s Ukraine Peace Plan.

BTW, since Secretary Bessant never went to business school, he presumably never encountered the famous “case study” of how George Romney (father of Mitt) was, prior to serving as Governor of Michigan 1963-1969, the CEO of American Motors (1954-1962) where he famously terminated the Nash and Hudson models and BET THE PROVERBIAL “FAMILY RANCH” ON THE NEW FIRST-EVER COMPACT-SIZE MODEL CALLED THE RAMBLER – which was an overwhelming success.

[Of course, American Motors ran into trouble after George Romney departed for the Michigan Governor’s Mansion and AMC no longer exists, but that is outside the focus of the business-school “case study.”]


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SECOND, What Secretary Bessent Would Have Learned From America’s “Gunboat Diplomacy” (which died circa 1973) If Secretary Bessent Had Ever Studied History


Yes, long before the U.S. Supreme Court broke up in 1911 under the Sherman Anti-Trust Act the Rockefellers’ old Standard Oil Trust into 34 separate companies --

three of which became members of the legendary oil-industry “Seven Sisters” – Standard Oil of New Jersey (Exxon), Standard Oil of California (Chevron), and Standard Oil of New York (Mobil) – which dominated the Top 10 of the Fortune 500 --

as well as at least one other behemoth – Standard Oil of Indiana (Amoco) --

America had been practicing Gunboat Diplomacy pursuant to which U.S.-Based Multinational Companies enjoyed the use of the American military to protect their foreign interests FREE OF CHARGE!!!

So what happened???

Until circa 1973, the American Oil Companies (and many non-oil American companies operating abroad) were protected by America's “Gunboat Diplomacy.”

But OPEC (aka the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) began their decade-long takeover of the overseas assets of the American Oil Companies – AND AMERICA DID NOT “LIFT A FINGER” FOR FEAR OF ANTAGONIZING THIRD-WORLD COUNTRIES THAT HAD SO RECENTLY CEASED BEING EUROPEAN COLONIES.

And the American Oil Companies didn’t really mind BECAUSE THEY STILL HAD THE “DOWN STREAM” REFINING & MARKETING ASSETS THAT THE OPEC COUNTRIES NEEDED TO MARKET THEIR CRUDE OIL [NB: they couldn’t simply refine their crude oil and export the refined products because transportation by VLCC/ULCC (very/ultra-large CRUDE carriers) is so much cheaper than dinky refined-product tankers).

So the OPEC crude oil went through the same refining/distribution channels as before with the oil companies more-than-happy to pass on to consumers the newly-quadrupled crude prices – quadrupled courtesy of OPEC.


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So How Would Donald “Gun-Boat-Diplomacy Wannabe” Trump’s Gun-Boat Diplomacy Actually Work???

Since Donald “Beauty Pageant” Trump appears to believe in WORLD PEACE at any price, the short answer is “very poorly”!!!

Yes, Donald “Beauty Pageant” Trump can force economically (by withholding weapons) Ukraine to pay for a second time for America’s 1994 Guarantee of Ukraine’s Independence and Territorial Integrity.

For which the 1994 price was Ukraine surrendering its 1,900 multiple-warhead nuclear missiles.

And the second payment for such a guarantee WHICH AMERICA IS ABOUT TO SHIRK would be surrendering 50% of Ukraine’s “rare earth” and other mineral deposits.

Donald “Beauty Pageant” Trump’s apparent argument is that with so much activity and investment in Ukraine by American companies, Russia would never dare to attack Ukraine again!!!

Really???

America proved vis-à-vis OPEC a half-century ago, that American gunboat-diplomacy is a farce!!!

Moreover, ever since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Russia has been careful NOT to rupture the Chernobyl and other Ukrainian nuclear-power plants with indiscriminate bombing/shelling!!!

So it should be just as easy the next time Russia invades Ukraine for Russia to refrain from bombing/shelling the American mineral-excavation sites!!!

A stand-off???

Absolutely not!!!

Now those isolated excavation-site “islands” need to import water/food/supplies/equipment/etc. through Russian territory.

And export the minerals through Russian territory.

All Russia has to do is “take a page” from the Donald “Tarriff” Trump playbook and TARIFF THE LIFE OUT OF any imports or exports (without the historically-typical credit against tariffs on imports that are exported).

DO YOU REALLY THINK THE U.S. COULD MOUNT A BERLIN-STYLE AIRLIFT OF THE WATER/FOOD/SUPPLIES/EQUIPMENT/ETC. INTO THE MINERAL-EXCAVATION ISLANDS???.

AND A BERLIN-STYLE AIRLIFT OF THE EXCAVATED MINERALS FROM THE MINERAL-EXCAVATION ISLANDS???

AFTER ALL --

(1) Donald “Beauty Pageant” Trump would NOT build into his Putin Peace Deal an “air corridor” such as the THREE air corridors the Western Allies had ab initio into West Berlin!!! [After all, doing so would betray his knowledge that the air corridors would be necessary.]

(2) And do you think for a moment that it would be ECONOMIC to transport all those minerals and all that water/food/supplies/equipment/etc. BY AIRPLANE???


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China’s Gun Boat Diplomacy

Yes, the last decade or so, China has specialized in “loan shark” deals with third-world countries to develop their natural resources.

And the moment the third-world country is unable to pay the “loan shark” rates, to take over the natural resources completely.

AND NOBODY DOUBTS WHETHER CHINA’S PRESENT-DAY MILITARY FORCES WOULD HESITATE TO ENFORCE THE TAKEOVERS.

After all, you may recall that we have focused at least once on China’s modern-day “gunboat diplomacy” and decided that the U.S. cannot afford to be “The Policeman of the World.”

And that any third world country stupid enough and/or unfortunate enough to have a non-democratic and/or corrupt government, will just have to suffer.


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Coming Full Circle to Taiwan and Transistors

Why should Russia take seriously from a strategic viewpoint any American economic development in Ukraine???

And indeed, why should any American company take seriously any illusion of American gunboat-diplomacy to “stick its neck out” in Ukraine???

UNLESS OF COURSE, any potential loss in Ukraine occasioned by the inevitable future Russian invasion will be guaranteed by OPIC – aka the U.S. Government’s Overseas Private Investment Corporation which holds harmless U.S. businesses investing in developing countries???

After all, we have studied on numerous occasions this issue which is also incorporated in --

OUR WEBSITE’S SEC. 3 (Proposed Topics for Future Meetings) Proposed Topic entitled --

“Realpolitik - Has Taiwan Been Prudent Enough To Buy/Develop Sufficient Nuclear Weapons To Deter China.?” --


********************Beginning of Quotation From “Realpolitik - Has Taiwan Been Prudent Enough To Buy/Develop Sufficient Nuclear Weapons To Deter China.?”********** **********

Third, it would appear that the “writing is on the wall” re American support (or possible lack thereof) –

Per The Economist on 3/6/2023 (https://www.economist.com/special-repor ... -important) - computer chips (aka semiconductors) are required for everything from computers to mobile phones to automobiles -- and Taiwan produces over 60% of the world's semiconductors and over 90% of the most advanced ones.

According to Intel (https://www.intel.com/content/dam/www/c ... -a-fab.pdf) building a semiconductor factory requires about three years to complete.

The CHIPS and Science Act of 8/9/2022 provides roughly $280 billion in new funding to boost domestic research and manufacturing of semiconductors in the United States.

ACCORDINGLY, HERE’S HOPING THAT CHINA DOES NOT TAKE OVER TAIWAN BEFORE 8/9/2025 (Intel’s “three years” following enactment).

********************End of Quotation From “Realpolitik - Has Taiwan Been Prudent Enough To Buy/Develop Sufficient Nuclear Weapons To Deter China.?”********** **********


SO A FEW QUESTIONS IF WE FOCUS ON THIS TOPIC FOR A FUTURE MEETING –

(1) Will the U.S. meet its 8/9/2025 target date for replacing semiconductors from Taiwan???

(2) Isn’t America’s 8/9/2025 target date a de facto GREEN LIGHT for China to invade Taiwan any time thereafter???

(3) Shouldn’t Donald “Beauty Pageant” Trump who apparently believes in WORLD PEACE at any price – be preparing now for how to handle the inevitable “public relations” fall out from failing to “lift a finger” to defend Taiwan???


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Valediction

Thank you again for your e-mail – I always enjoy our exchanges!!!

Particularly since they bring out details that may not be obvious to our other members.

Your friend,

John K.