Second Short Quiz – Intro + Chapters 1-35

[johnkarls]

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1. Does the Intro, after spending considerable effort to define a “chokepoint” with the historical example of the physical “chokepoint” of the Bosporus (aka Constantinople aka Istanbul), inadvertently disprove Edward Fishman’s argument for the effectiveness of economic sanctions by citing (pp. 3-5) the so-called 12/5/2022 “price cap” economic sanction against Russian oil & gas exports BECAUSE IT FAILED TO HALT THE 2/24/2022 RUSSIAN INVASION OF UKRAINE???

2. Are Pres/ Trump’s many tariffs against many countries for many reasons ignored by Edward Fishman’s definition of economic sanctions??? Wouldn’t it be correct to treat tariffs as a THIRD CATEGORY separate from economic sanctions (as defined by Fishman) and military action???

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PART ONE – BUILDING THE CHOKEPOINTS

3. In Chapter 1 (The Old Way: A Brief History of Economic Warfare from Pericles to Saddam), does Edward Fishman admit (p. 16) that economic sanctions almost always require formidable military power??? Indeed, doesn’t Edward Fishman spend pp. 16-19 talking about the Iraq’s 1990 take-over of Kuwait which resulted in a quick and successful U.N. MILITARY victory over Iraq???

4. In Chapter 2 (Invisible Infrastructure), does Edward Fishman claim that the U.S. has ever ordered U.S. banks to refuse to process (in his p. 21-22 example) a payment by a Indian oil refinery’s bank to a Saudi oil company’s bank using one of two wire-transfer systems used by U.S. banks??? If it has never been tried, what assurance is there that the U.S. banks would not simply be cut out of the transaction since any bank can make a wire transfer to another bank???

5. Does Chapter 3 (Finance Unchained) focus on the U.S. dollar going off the “gold standard” which we have already addressed in Q&A-26 through Q&A-28 of the First Short Quiz at viewtopic.php?f=874&t=2705&sid=00448f1b ... 352dbf5525??? Does Chapter 3 even provide as much insight as our First Short Quiz???

6. Does Chapter 4 (The Deal in the Desert) contain “history” that is breathtakingly wrong for someone who was Senior Tax Counsel 1974-1987 for Texaco (one of the 4 Aramco shareholders which owned every drop of oil & gas in Saudi Arabia on-shore and off-shore until 1982) AS A RESULT OF WHICH YOURS TRULY HAD TO TRAVEL TO SAUDI 3-4 TIMES/YEAR 1974-1982 FOR NEGOTIATIONS???

7. Does Chapter 5 (Our Currency, Your Problem) take the traditional Democrat view (p. 52) that the collapse of the USSR was a miracle, rather than President Reagan launching an arm’s race which he knew would bankrupt the USSR (just like Babe Ruth “calling his shot” in the 1932 World Series)???

8. Does Edward Fishman ridicule (pp. 34-35) the position of Pres. Clinton’s Treasury Sec’y & former Goldman Sachs Co-Chair Robert Rubin that using the dollar as an economic weapon would undermine its role as the world’s reserve currency???

9. Does Chapter 6 (“Guerrillas in Grey Suits”) describe the efforts of the US Gov, post 9/11, to hamper the funding of Al Qaeda which, though unknown heretofore by Yours Truly, deserves his gratitude even though he is no longer perched for 45 minutes on a stalled subway train without electricity 300 yards from the World Trade Center’s North Tower when it collapsed (our position was well inside the WTC-restrictive fence after 9/11)???

10. Does Chapter 7 (“An Economic Weapons Test”) describe a 2005 test against North Korea’s banking connections which resulted in North Korea being “de-banked” not only by the Macao (China) bank but other non-targeted banks as well???

11. Was the effect merely short term??? After all, hasn’t North Korea’s nuclear program proceeded full-speed-ahead after, at most, a temporary “speed bump”???

12. Though isn’t Edward Fishman “on target” in calling North Korea a creature of China because North Korea would not exist without China’s support???

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PART TWO – IRAN AND THE BOMB (Chapters 8-21)

No questions are provided for these chapters because --

(A) The Iranian nuclear program has been eliminated, at least for foreseeable future, by the “Twelve Day War” June 12-24, 2025 in which the only U.S. military personnel involved performed a U.S. Air Force bombing mission on the last day.

(B) As stated in our FedEx letter to Pres. Biden on his 1/20/2020 inauguration day, we opined that Pres. Obama’s Iranian Nuclear Deal (JCPOA) from which Pres. Trump withdrew the U.S. in his first term, should NOT be renewed WITHOUT --

• Eliminating its guarantee of Iranian nuclear weapons by 2030,
• Providing for “anytime anywhere” inspections, and
• Banning development of short-range and inter-continental ballistic missiles since the latter are only needed for nuking “The Great Satan” (i.e., the U.S.).

(C) Pres. Biden’s actions were pitifully weak --

• Groveling to be permitted to rejoin the JCPOA without any changes;
• Even submitting to Iran’s insistence that Russian President Vladimir Putin be America’s chief negotiator in the groveling; and
• Finally being spurned by the Iranians.

(D) Pres. Biden’s “economic sanctions” were obviously equally ineffectual.

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PART THREE – RUSSIA’S IMPERIAL LAND GRAB (Chapters 22-35)

13. Does Chapter 22 (The Diplomat) describe the State Dept’s 2/24/2014 “Coordinator for Sanctions Policy” Dan Fried (vs. Treasury Dept’s sanctions personnel) without mentioning a single action Dan Fried took in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine other than go to his office???

14. Does Chapter 23 (The Fallen Bear Licks Its Wounds) describe the 1991 dissolution of the USSR pursuant to which the 14 Soviet Republics unanimously declared their independence from each other – and the ensuing 1991-2014 period during which there were not only no US sanctions against Russia but massive investments in Russia by US companies, especially oil companies???

15. Does the title of Chapter 24 (Euromaidan) reference Maidan Nezalezhnosti (aka Independence Square) in the middle of Kyiv Ukraine where in 2013-2014 occurred the protests resulting in the ousting of a pro-Russian president and solidifying Ukraine's shift toward the West???

16. Does Chapter 25 (Aim First, Then Shoot) describe Obama’s pitifully-weak economic sanctions which only froze the foreign assets of some of Putin’s associates???

17. Did the Obama Administration (p. 159) “quickly reach consensus on one principle: America should not act alone”??? Thereby, due to Western Europe’s dependence on Russian oil & gas, guaranteeing that the only effective economic sanction which would have brought Sen. John McCain’s “gas station masquerading as a country” to heel immediately, would NOT be imposed???

18. Does Chapter 26 (The Contact Group) describe how Dan Fried (reference Q-13) constructed a discussion group of 10-12 countries with NO authority to make decisions while Russia invaded Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv and (per Chap. 27) the Donbas ???’

19. Does Chapter 27 (The Scalpel) refer to the US/European economic sanction imposed after only 4 months, BUT NOT on Russia’s oil & gas production which would have brought Sen John McCain’s “gas station masquerading as a country” to its knees -- but only to “carefully sever” its access to Western capital markets and technology???

20. Does Chapter 28 (The Opening Salvo) record that the US/Europe ignored their own 6/30/2014 deadline with the US following through on July 16 and Europe wimping out???

21. Does Chapter 29 (MH17) record that on the following day 7/17/2014, Russia militia shot down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumper thinking it was a military jet rather than a civilian Boeing 777, killing all 293 passengers and 14 crew???

22. Did the Dutch Foreign Minister then shame the other European countries that 196 dead Dutch nationals required them to support the economic sanctions after all???

23. Does Chapter 30 (Escalation) record that in August 2014, Russia sent in regular army units to back up the Russian militia though new economic sanctions halted a new Exxon-Mobil drilling project in the Russian arctic???

24. Does Chapter 31 (Economy in Tatters) admit –

• None of the economic sanctions or Russian counter-measures (p. 195) “addressed the fundamental weakness of Russia’s economy: ITS SENSITIFITY TO WORLD OIL PRICES” (all-caps emphasis added)???

• With a graph (p. 200) showing how world oil prices plummeted from $112/bbl before Russia started the war in Feb 2014 to less than $50/bbl by the time the Minsk II agreement of 2/12/2015 effectively ended the war???

25. Does Edward Fishman note (pp. 196-197) that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (aka OPEC) was widely expected to cut production in order to halt the price drop???

26. Does Edward Fishman here exhibit, or has he ever exhibited elsewhere, the knowledge that OPEC is really a fiction with all of its members EXCEPT SAUDI ARABIA just there for show??? Since Saudi’s massive production not only dwarfs each of the other OPEC members BUT SAUDI HAS HISTORICALLY BEEN THE ONLY OPEC MEMBER TO MAKE OPEC PRICES STICK BY SHUTTING IN ENOUGH OF ITS OWN PRODUCTION???

27. Shouldn’t this have been obvious, even for Edward Fishman, from the so-called “Aramco Advantage” of 1976 et seq. when the “government take” (royalties + income taxes) paid by the Aramco’s Texaco/Chevron/Exxon/Mobil partners on Saudi oil & gas (all of which they owned, on-shore and off-shore) was considerably less than the “government take” imposed by other OPEC members???

28. Even despite his ignorance, why wasn’t Edward Fishman interested in why Saudi permitted (and, indeed, caused) the world oil price to plummet???

29. Did unbeknownst to Edward Fishman, Saudi have a reason for supporting Ukraine and/or putting it to Putin???

30. Which Edward Fishman admits with his graph on p. 200, produced the end of Putin’s 2014-2015 war – rather than the pitiful U.S./European “economic sanctions” behind which our pols like to pretend they are actually doing something???

31. Does Chapter 32 (Back from the Edge) say US policy was explicitly “to PREVENT Russia from spiraling into an uncontrolled financial crisis…lead[ing] to another recession in the United States”???!!! Is this because our organization had not yet tutored the 12 Presidents of the Regional Federal Reserve Banks re the true cause of the 2008 et seq. economic meltdown???

32. Does Edward Fishman then record how Obama considered (pp. 204-206) whether to provide Ukraine with Javelin anti-tank weapons, but decided to stick with non-lethal aid comprising blankets???

33. Does Chapter 33 (From Russia with Bribes) record how the absurd requirement of Western unanimity for sanctions led Russia to attempt to bribe lightweights like Greece or Cyprus to veto sanctions??? And did he finally successfully bribe Germany with the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline???

34. Does Chapter 34 (Dark Thought) contain the BIZARRE claim that in 2015, Putin’s principal aims in Syria were (p. 213) “to shore up Assad’s rule AND SECURE A FOOTHOLD FOR RUSSIA IN THE MIDDLE EAST” (all-caps emphasis added)??? Is Edward Fishman ignorant of the fact that Russia had already enjoyed that foothold for 44 years by virtue of the 1971 USSR-Syrian Agreement which permitted Russia to open a naval military base at Tartus Syria – which Russia still has to this day despite the fall of the Assad regime???

35. Is Chapter 35 (A Way Out via Golden Escalator) a reference to Donald Trump coming down the Golden Escalator in Trump Tower (Manhattan) 6/16/2015 to announce he would run for President??? Does Chap. 35 (pp. 216-217) describe Obama Treasury Secretary Jack Lew’s 3/30/2016 valedictory speech on economic sanctions which warned “overuse…could threaten the central role of the U.S. financial system globally, not to mention the effectiveness of our sanctions in the future”???

36. Does Jack Lew’s warning echo the position of Pres. Clinton’s Treasury Sec’y & former Goldman Sachs Co-Chair Robert Rubin that using the dollar as an economic weapon would undermine its role as the world’s reserve currency – which Edward Fishman ridiculed on pp. 34-35 (reference Q-8)???

37. Does Edward Fishman’s Chap. 35 assessment of Ukraine’s prospects during the first Trump Administration ring true???

38. After all, didn’t Putin refrain from attacking Ukraine again during the first Trump Administration???

39. And rather than Obama’s non-lethal aid comprising blankets, didn’t Pres. Trump give the Ukrainians Javelin anti-tank weapons???

40. So that when Putin launched the SECOND Ukrainian War 2/24/2022 DURING THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION when Putin thought he would defeat Ukraine IN 10 DAYS with his tanks lined up along the entire invasion route to Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital – ALL OF THE RUSSIAN TANKS WERE PROMPTLY INCINERATED BY PRES. TRUMP’S JAVELINS???