Suggested Answers to the Second Short Quiz

[johnkarls]

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Question 1

Does the Intro, after spending considerable effort to define a “chokepoint” with the historical example of the physical “chokepoint” of the Bosporus (aka Constantinople aka Istanbul), inadvertently disprove Edward Fishman’s argument for the effectiveness of economic sanctions by citing (pp. 3-5) the so-called 12/5/2022 “price cap” economic sanction against Russian oil & gas exports BECAUSE IT FAILED TO HALT THE 2/24/2022 RUSSIAN INVASION OF UKRAINE???

Answer 1

So it would appear.

Question 2

Are Pres/ Trump’s many tariffs against many countries for many reasons ignored by Edward Fishman’s definition of economic sanctions??? Wouldn’t it be correct to treat tariffs as a THIRD CATEGORY separate from economic sanctions (as defined by Fishman) and military action???

Answer 2

Yes, Edward Fishman ignores all of the many massive tariffs imposed during Pres. Trump’s first term – most of which BTW were continued by the Biden Administration.

And since the tariffs are unilaterally imposed, they don’t meet Fishman’s definition of “economic sanctions” which contemplates action by GROUPS of nations.

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PART ONE – BUILDING THE CHOKEPOINTS

Question 3

In Chapter 1 (The Old Way: A Brief History of Economic Warfare from Pericles to Saddam), does Edward Fishman admit (p. 16) that economic sanctions almost always require formidable military power??? Indeed, doesn’t Edward Fishman spend pp. 16-19 talking about the Iraq’s 1990 take-over of Kuwait which resulted in a quick and successful U.N. MILITARY victory over Iraq???

Answer 3

Yes and Yes.

Question 4

In Chapter 2 (Invisible Infrastructure), does Edward Fishman claim that the U.S. has ever ordered U.S. banks to refuse to process (in his p. 21-22 example) a payment by a Indian oil refinery’s bank to a Saudi oil company’s bank using one of two wire-transfer systems used by U.S. banks??? If it has never been tried, what assurance is there that the U.S. banks would not simply be cut out of the transaction since any bank can make a wire transfer to another bank???

Answer 4

No, Fishman makes no such claim.

Re whether U.S. banks would simply be cut out, please see --

(A) Q&A-8 re Pres. Clinton’s Treasury Sec’y & former Goldman Sachs Co-Chair Robert Rubin warning that using the dollar as an economic weapon would undermine its role as the world’s reserve currency – which Edward Fishman ridiculed on pp. 34-35, and

(B) Q&A-35 and Q&A-36 re Pres. Obama’s Treasury Secretary Jack Lew issuing the same warning.

Question 5

Does Chapter 3 (Finance Unchained) focus on the U.S. dollar going off the “gold standard” which we have already addressed in Q&A-26 through Q&A-28 of the First Short Quiz at viewtopic.php?f=874&t=2705&sid=00448f1b ... 352dbf5525???
Does Chapter 3 even provide as much insight as our First Short Quiz???

Answer 5

Yes re focus.

No re insight.

Question 6

Does Chapter 4 (The Deal in the Desert) contain “history” that is breathtakingly wrong for someone who was Senior Tax Counsel 1974-1987 for Texaco (one of the 4 Aramco shareholders which owned every drop of oil & gas in Saudi Arabia on-shore and off-shore until 1982) AS A RESULT OF WHICH YOURS TRULY HAD TO TRAVEL TO SAUDI 3-4 TIMES/YEAR 1974-1982 FOR NEGOTIATIONS???

Answer 6

Absolutely!!!

Question 7

Does Chapter 5 (Our Currency, Your Problem) take the traditional Democrat view (p. 52) that the collapse of the USSR was a miracle, rather than President Reagan launching an arm’s race which he knew would bankrupt the USSR (just like Babe Ruth “calling his shot” in the 1932 World Series)???

Answer 7

Yes.

Though there is no evidence that in “calling his shot,” Pres. Reagan was inspired by Babe Ruth.

Question 8

Does Edward Fishman ridicule (pp. 34-35) the position of Pres. Clinton’s Treasury Sec’y & former Goldman Sachs Co-Chair Robert Rubin that using the dollar as an economic weapon would undermine its role as the world’s reserve currency???

Answer 8

Yes.

Question 9

Does Chapter 6 (“Guerrillas in Grey Suits”) describe the efforts of the US Gov, post 9/11, to hamper the funding of Al Qaeda which, though unknown heretofore by Yours Truly, deserves his gratitude even though he is no longer perched for 45 minutes on a stalled subway train without electricity 300 yards from the World Trade Center’s North Tower when it collapsed (our position was well inside the WTC-restrictive fence after 9/11)???

Answer 9

Yes, my gratitude will last forever even though I am no longer so perched.

BTW, the term “Guerrillas in Grey Suits” refers to guerrilla militia rather than regular uniformed military personnel – not the US Gov anti-terrorist personnel as inartfully implied by the question.

Question 10

Does Chapter 7 (“An Economic Weapons Test”) describe a 2005 test against North Korea’s banking connections which resulted in North Korea being “de-banked” not only by the Macao (China) bank but other non-targeted banks as well???

Answer 10

Yes.

Question 11

Was the effect merely short term??? After all, hasn’t North Korea’s nuclear program proceeded full-speed-ahead after, at most, a temporary “speed bump”???

Answer 11

Not even a “speed bump” – more like the blink of an eye.

Question 12

Though isn’t Edward Fishman “on target” in calling North Korea a creature of China because North Korea would not exist without China’s support???

Answer 12

Absolutely!!!

Please see our 2/14/2018 action campaign entitlee “Holding China Responsible for No. Korean Actions” and addressed to Pres. Trump at viewtopic.php?f=23&t=1719&sid=37e001446 ... b5d7754e00.


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PART TWO – IRAN AND THE BOMB (Chapters 8-21)

No questions are provided for these chapters because --

(A) The Iranian nuclear program has been eliminated, at least for foreseeable future, by the “Twelve Day War” June 12-24, 2025 in which the only U.S. military personnel involved performed a U.S. Air Force bombing mission on the last day.

(B) As stated in our FedEx letter to Pres. Biden on his 1/20/2020 inauguration day, we opined that Pres. Obama’s Iranian Nuclear Deal (JCPOA) from which Pres. Trump withdrew the U.S. in his first term, should NOT be renewed WITHOUT --

• Eliminating its guarantee of Iranian nuclear weapons by 2030,
• Providing for “anytime anywhere” inspections, and
• Banning development of short-range and inter-continental ballistic missiles since the latter are only needed for nuking “The Great Satan” (i.e., the U.S.).

(C) Pres. Biden’s actions were pitifully weak --

• Groveling to be permitted to rejoin the JCPOA without any changes;
• Even submitting to Iran’s insistence that Russian President Vladimir Putin be America’s chief negotiator in the groveling; and
• Finally being spurned by the Iranians.

(D) Pres. Biden’s “economic sanctions” were obviously equally ineffectual.


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PART THREE – RUSSIA’S IMPERIAL LAND GRAB (Chapters 22-35)

Question 13

Does Chapter 22 (The Diplomat) describe the State Dept’s 2/24/2014 “Coordinator for Sanctions Policy” Dan Fried (vs. Treasury Dept’s sanctions personnel) without mentioning a single action Dan Fried took in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine other than go to his office???

Answer 13

Yes.

Question 14

Does Chapter 23 (The Fallen Bear Licks Its Wounds) describe the 1991 dissolution of the USSR pursuant to which the 14 Soviet Republics unanimously declared their independence from each other – and the ensuing 1991-2014 period during which there were not only no US sanctions against Russia but massive investments in Russia by US companies, especially oil companies???

Answer 14

Yes.

A more detailed description of the 1991 dissolution of the USSR is contained in the attachment to our 4/16/2025 action campaign entitled “MAKING AMERICA HONORABLE AGAIN – by sending 1,900 American multiple-warhead nuclear missiles to Ukraine with our apology” and addressed to Pres. Trump.

The attachment to that letter was a 1/8/2025 action campaign entitled “Ukraine -- America’s Guarantee of Ukrainian Independence and Territorial Integrity -- Ukraine In Exchange Surrendering in 1994 Its 1,900 Multiple-Warhead Nuclear Missiles” and addressed to President-Elect Trump.

It said in part --

As we’re sure you are aware –

• On 12/26/1991 the old Soviet Union dissolved as proclaimed in Declaration No. 142-H of the individual Soviet Republics of the Supreme Soviet of the Soviet Union. That is, that all 14 Soviet Republics including Russia and Ukraine were thenceforth independent.

• The dissolution left Ukraine with 1,900 multiple-warhead nuclear missiles.

• Ukraine had its share of USSR nuclear scientists and its share USSR military nuclear-missile techies so that Ukraine would have had no trouble in remaining the world’s THIRD-largest nuclear power – behind the U.S. and Russia BUT AHEAD OF Britain, France, China, etc.

• However, as a new “world citizen,” Ukraine signaled its willingness to surrender its 1,900 multiple-warhead nuclear missiles and its nuclear-weapons program IF ITS INDEPENDENCE AND TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY WERE GUARANTEED.

• On 12/5/1994, President Bill Clinton for the U.S., Prime Minister John Major for the U.K., and President Boris Yeltsin for Russia signed an agreement GUARANTEEING UKRAINE’S INDEPENDENCE AND TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY if Ukraine would surrender its 1,900 multiple-warhead nuclear missiles and its nuclear-weapons program.
• Ukraine immediately did so.

• On 2/24/2022, Russia invaded Ukraine – as it had in 2014.

• Technically, the 12/5/1994 agreement described above (often called “The Budapest Memorandum”) is not triggered unless the threatener of Ukraine’s independence OR territorial integrity ALSO threatened the use of nuclear weapons.

• Vis-à-vis the current war, Putin has long since threatened the use of nuclear weapons (albeit so-called “tactical nukes”).

**********End of Quotation from 1/8/2025 Letter to President-Elect Trump**********

Question 15

Does the title of Chapter 24 (Euromaidan) reference Maidan Nezalezhnosti (aka Independence Square) in the middle of Kyiv Ukraine where in 2013-2014 occurred the protests resulting in the ousting of a pro-Russian president and solidifying Ukraine's shift toward the West???

Answer 15

Yes.

Question 16

Does Chapter 25 (Aim First, Then Shoot) describe Obama’s pitifully-weak economic sanctions which only froze the foreign assets of some of Putin’s associates???

Answer 16

Yes.

Question 17

Did the Obama Administration (p. 159) “quickly reach consensus on one principle: America should not act alone”??? Thereby, due to Western Europe’s dependence on Russian oil & gas, guaranteeing that the only effective economic sanction which would have brought Sen. John McCain’s “gas station masquerading as a country” to heel immediately, would NOT be imposed???

Answer 17

Yes and Yes.

Question 18

Does Chapter 26 (The Contact Group) describe how Dan Fried (reference Q-13) constructed a discussion group of 10-12 countries with NO authority to make decisions while Russia invaded Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv and (per Chap. 27) the Donbas ???’

Answer 18

Yes.

Question 19

Does Chapter 27 (The Scalpel) refer to the US/European economic sanction imposed after only 4 months, BUT NOT on Russia’s oil & gas production which would have brought Sen John McCain’s “gas station masquerading as a country” to its knees -- but only to “carefully sever” its access to Western capital markets and technology???

Answer 19

UNFORTUNATELY!!!

Question 20

Does Chapter 28 (The Opening Salvo) record that the US/Europe ignored their own 6/30/2014 deadline with the US following through on July 16 and Europe wimping out???

Answer 20

Yes, the U.S. ignored its own deadline and Europe wimped out!!!

Question 21

Does Chapter 29 (MH17) record that on the following day 7/17/2014, Russia militia shot down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumper thinking it was a military jet rather than a civilian Boeing 777, killing all 293 passengers and 14 crew???

Answer 21

Yes.

Question 22

Did the Dutch Foreign Minister then shame the other European countries that 196 dead Dutch nationals required them to support the economic sanctions after all???

Answer 22

Yes.

It’s interesting that 196 dead Dutch can shame Europeans into resuming their stance behind the ineffectual “fig leaf” of economic sanctions.

Question 23

Does Chapter 30 (Escalation) record that in August 2014, Russia sent in regular army units to back up the Russian militia though new economic sanctions halted a new Exxon-Mobil drilling project in the Russian arctic???

Answer 23

Yes.

Question 24

Does Chapter 31 (Economy in Tatters) admit –

• None of the economic sanctions or Russian counter-measures (p. 195) “addressed the fundamental weakness of Russia’s economy -- ITS SENSITIFITY TO WORLD OIL PRICES” (all-caps emphasis added)???

• With a graph (p. 200) showing how world oil prices plummeted from $112/bbl before Russia started the war in Feb 2014 to less than $50/bbl by the time the Minsk II agreement of 2/12/2015 effectively ended the war???

Answer 24

Yes and Yes.

Question 25

Does Edward Fishman note (pp. 196-197) that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (aka OPEC) was widely expected to cut production in order to halt the price drop???

Answer 25

Yes.

Question 26

Does Edward Fishman here exhibit, or has he ever exhibited elsewhere, the knowledge that OPEC is really a fiction with all of its members EXCEPT SAUDI ARABIA just there for show??? Since Saudi’s massive production not only dwarfs each of the other OPEC members BUT SAUDI HAS HISTORICALLY BEEN THE ONLY OPEC MEMBER TO MAKE OPEC PRICES STICK BY SHUTTING IN ENOUGH OF ITS OWN PRODUCTION???

Answer 26

No, Fishman does not here (nor anywhere else) exhibit such knowledge.

And yes, Saudi Arabia is the driving force behind OPEC with the other members just there for show.

Question 27

Shouldn’t this have been obvious, even for Edward Fishman, from the so-called “Aramco Advantage” of 1976 et seq. when the “government take” (royalties + income taxes) paid by the Aramco’s Texaco/Chevron/Exxon/Mobil partners on Saudi oil & gas (all of which they owned, on-shore and off-shore) was considerably less than the “government take” imposed by other OPEC members???

Answer 27

So it would seem!!!

Question 28

Even despite his ignorance, why wasn’t Edward Fishman interested in why Saudi permitted (and, indeed, caused) the world oil price to plummet???

Answer 28

God only knows!!!

Question 29

Did unbeknownst to Edward Fishman, Saudi have a reason for supporting Ukraine and/or putting it to Putin???

Answer 29

God only knows!!!

Question 30

Which Edward Fishman admits with his graph on p. 200, produced the end of Putin’s 2014-2015 war – rather than the pitiful U.S./European “economic sanctions” behind which our pols like to pretend they are actually doing something???

Answer 30

ABSOLUTELY!!!

BTW, it is interesting that Putin and his economy were brought to his/its knees BY A MERE 50% REDUCTION IN OIL REVENUES!!!

Rather than the 100% reduction if tariffs currently threatened against India’s and China’s purchases of Russian oil & gas are actually imposed!!!

Question 31

Does Chapter 32 (Back from the Edge) say US policy was explicitly “to PREVENT Russia from spiraling into an uncontrolled financial crisis…lead[ing] to another recession in the United States”???!!! Is this because our organization had not yet tutored the 12 Presidents of the Regional Federal Reserve Banks re the true cause of the 2008 et seq. economic meltdown???

Answer 31

AMAZINGLY!!!

Though we had not yet in 2014 educated the Presidents of each of the 12 Regional U.S. Federal Reserve Banks re the true cause of the 2008 et seq. economic meltdown.

And how Congress had once again enacted legislation at the end of 2017 which would cause another economic meltdown of the same or greater magnitude.

Unless the 12 Regional Federal Reserve Bank Presidents exercised their already-existing bexpress authority to make emergency loans to the American companies that otherwise would have to reduce American capital expenditures and their American work force by $4 TRillion - $5 TRillion or more.

Please see a sample of our 12 action letters entitled “Will The Federal Reserve Permit Another Economic Meltdown Caused By Supposedly ‘Offshore’ Funds Generated By U.S.-Based Multi-National Companies From Exporting American Jobs?” at viewtopic.php?p=2250&sid=37e001446552c1 ... 4e00#p2250.

Question 32

Does Edward Fishman then record how Obama considered (pp. 204-206) whether to provide Ukraine with Javelin anti-tank weapons, but decided to stick with non-lethal aid comprising blankets???

Answer 32

UNFORTUNATELY!!!

Question 33

Does Chapter 33 (From Russia with Bribes) record how the absurd requirement of Western unanimity for sanctions led Russia to attempt to bribe lightweights like Greece or Cyprus to veto sanctions??? And did he finally successfully bribe Germany with the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline???

Answer 33

Yes and Yes.

Question 34

Does Chapter 34 (Dark Thought) contain the BIZARRE claim that in 2015, Putin’s principal aims in Syria were (p. 213) “to shore up Assad’s rule AND SECURE A FOOTHOLD FOR RUSSIA IN THE MIDDLE EAST” (all-caps emphasis added)??? Is Edward Fishman ignorant of the fact that Russia had already enjoyed that foothold for 44 years by virtue of the 1971 USSR-Syrian Agreement which permitted Russia to open a naval military base at Tartus Syria – which Russia still has to this day despite the fall of the Assad regime???

Answer 34

Yes, Chap. 34 contains that BIZARRE claim !!!

And yes, Fishman displays ignorance of the 1971 USSR-Syrian Agreement!!!

Question 35

Is Chapter 35 (A Way Out via Golden Escalator) a reference to Donald Trump coming down the Golden Escalator in Trump Tower (Manhattan) 6/16/2015 to announce he would run for President??? Does Chap. 35 (pp. 216-217) describe Obama Treasury Secretary Jack Lew’s 3/30/2016 valedictory speech on economic sanctions which warned “overuse…could threaten the central role of the U.S. financial system globally, not to mention the effectiveness of our sanctions in the future”???

Answer 35

Yes and Yes.

Question 36

Does Jack Lew’s warning echo the position of Pres. Clinton’s Treasury Sec’y & former Goldman Sachs Co-Chair Robert Rubin that using the dollar as an economic weapon would undermine its role as the world’s reserve currency – which Edward Fishman ridiculed on pp. 34-35 (reference Q-8)???

Answer 36

Yes.

Question 37

Does Edward Fishman’s Chap. 35 assessment of Ukraine’s prospects during the first Trump Administration ring true???

Answer 37

Please read on.
]
Question 38

After all, didn’t Putin refrain from attacking Ukraine again during the first Trump Administration???

Answer 38

Yes.

Question 39

And rather than Obama’s non-lethal aid comprising blankets, didn’t Pres. Trump give the Ukrainians Javelin anti-tank weapons???

Answer 39

Yes.

Question 40

So that when Putin launched the SECOND Ukrainian War 2/24/2022 DURING THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION when Putin thought he would defeat Ukraine IN 10 DAYS with his tanks lined up along the entire invasion route to Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital – ALL OF THE RUSSIAN TANKS WERE PROMPTLY INCINERATED BY PRES. TRUMP’S JAVELINS???

Answer 40

Yes.