NY Times Book Review of Brzezinski-Skowcroft Book

[johnkarls]

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New York Times
Published: September 23, 2008

BOOKS OF THE TIMES; A Dialogue and a Discourse on America's Global Role
By MICHIKO KAKUTANI

Conversations on the Future of American Foreign Policy
By Zbigniew Brzezinski and Brent Scowcroft Moderated by David Ignatius
291 pages. Basic Books. $27.50.

In the months before the American invasion of Iraq, among the few members of the foreign policy establishment to speak out forcefully about the dangers of going to war unilaterally against Saddam Hussein were Brent Scowcroft, national security adviser to the first President Bush, and Zbigniew Brzezinski, national security adviser to President Jimmy Carter.

In August 2002 Mr. Scowcroft warned that a ''virtual go-it-alone strategy against Iraq'' would degrade ''international cooperation with us against terrorism,'' and he presciently predicted that such a war ''would not be a cakewalk,'' as some members of the George W. Bush administration contended, but could involve ''a large-scale, long-term military occupation'' and ''would be very expensive -- with serious consequences for the U.S. and global economy.''

That same month Mr. Brzezinski cautioned that ''war is too serious a business and too unpredictable in its dynamic consequences -- especially in a highly flammable region -- to be undertaken because of a personal peeve, demagogically articulated fears or vague factual assertions.'' In February 2003, he added that ''an America that decides to act essentially on its own regarding Iraq'' could ''find itself quite alone in having to cope with the costs and burdens of the war's aftermath, not to mention widespread and rising hostility abroad.''

In a trenchant new book, ''America and the World: Conversations on the Future of American Foreign Policy,'' Mr. Brzezinski and Mr. Scowcroft (along with the Washington Post columnist David Ignatius, acting as moderator) incisively discuss the fallout of the Bush administration's war in Iraq, including the empowerment of Iran, the recruitment of more terrorists and the inflaming of hatreds within the region. They also survey the foreign policy landscape as a whole: the consequences of globalization, the rise of China as a new economic behemoth, the ambitions of a new Russia under the leadership of Vladimir V. Putin and Dmitri A. Medvedev.

Their wide-ranging dialogue gives the reader an acute sense of the daunting challenges (including nuclear proliferation, global warming and terrorism) confronted by America in a rapidly changing international environment, even as it emphasizes the importance of the coming presidential election in picking a leader to grapple with those issues at what could well be a hinge moment in modern history.

In addition to the continuing problems in Iraq, Mr. Scowcroft says, there exists now the overarching ''possibility of a general Middle East conflict in which the costs of Iraq would look minuscule.'' Both he and Mr. Brzezinski underscore the importance of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process -- which they suggest could change the psychology of the region and act as a catalyst for dealing with Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria and Iran -- and both stress the importance of the next president's engaging in that process immediately.

''We have an unusual moment now,'' says Mr. Scowcroft, noting: ''We have an Israeli government that is weak. We have a Palestinian entity that is weak. And, really for the first time, we have Arab countries ready to support a solution.'' He adds that ''the region is incredibly fragile right now'' and worries about the time it will take for the new president to get up to speed.

Although they come from opposite sides of the political aisle (Mr. Scowcroft is a Republican, Mr. Brzezinski a Democrat), both are foreign policy realists who believe that the United States must constructively engage with a rapidly changing world, not react defensively to it. And while they disagree on aspects of the expansion of NATO and the timing of an American withdrawal from Iraq (Mr. Scowcroft says that ''simply withdrawing is an impediment to a solution,'' while Mr. Brzezinski contends that America's continuing presence there is ''part of the problem''), they agree on a remarkable number of basic strategic and diplomatic principles.

Unlike neoconservative ideologues in the current administration, the two former national security advisers say that talks with hostile parties can be a useful tool, and they argue that in the wake of 9/11, the Manichean language employed by President Bush has alienated allies and aggravated resentments in many parts of the world.

They point to the importance of alliances in an increasingly complicated and interconnected world. And they object to what Mr. Scowcroft refers to as the propagation of ''an environment of fear'' at home, which Mr. Brzezinski says has made Americans ''more susceptible to demagogy'' and to ''a fearful paranoia that the outside world is conspiring through its massive terrorist forces to destroy us.''

What makes these discussions between Mr. Brzezinski and Mr. Scowcroft so bracing is their combination of common sense and an ability to place America's relationship with a particular country in both a historical perspective and a regional context of competing interests and threats. Their book should be required reading not only for the next president elect but also for any voters concerned with the foreign policy issues that will be on the next administration's plate.